2020年7月23日 星期四

經濟週期的投資熱點

風水輪流轉!股市的特點是什麼?就是變化。因此投資策略也應該永遠是變化的,與時俱進的,不能一成不變。不能看去年的老黃歷!

國家發展的過程中,不同時期會出現不同的股市的題材,如果你能捉到任何一個,你就可以大賺。這些題材有時會因為市場過熱而形成泡沫,你當然可以享受這泡沫帶來的上漲過程,但是頭腦絕對要清醒,做好隨時出場的準備。

主要發現宏觀或者微觀出現不利的苗頭,最好分批出貨,至於你是否能察覺不利的苗頭,取決於你自己的能力。

公司價值是動態且無精確的,只能大概計算。好像景氣循環公司,在行情淡的時候市盈率很低,好景的時候市盈率特別高,你根本不能準確的掌握價值,只能跟隨趨勢走。

公司的價值會隨著時代的變遷,行業的週期,公司的盈餘而變動。

美國就經歷了幾次行業變遷的不同週期的投資熱點,像:

20世級20-30年代:鐵路、公用事業

30-40年代:鋼鐵、汽車等工業公司

50年代:鋁工業、地毯

60年代:電子工業、塑膠工業-美蘇進行太空競爭有關(名字和電子太空沾邊都起)

70年代:石油業-中東戰爭,石油危機,石油輸出國提高油價

80年代:醫藥業-愛滋病蔓延及美國人對健康日益關切

90年代:電腦科技業-個人電腦和網際網絡普及

2008年金融危機爆發後的未來呢?......納米科技、生物科技、清潔能源...還是醫療養老行業?

馬來西亞也經歷過錫、橡膠,原產品生產(人造膠淘汰天然膠,因石油便宜)。之後有工業、電子、油棕。

香港經歷過塑膠、地產、海運出入口、貿易、金融。

行業的價值鏈改變,像數碼代替了膠片(film to digital)。

經濟週期的變化雖然影響所有的股票,但影響的程度和先後不同。一般來說,在經濟復甦早期階段,科技股如電腦、軟件、半導體,金融股如銀行、保險、證券,以及石油、耐用消費品公司等較看好。

經濟進入高漲期後,機器製造、工程建築、電力設備等較看好。

經濟高峰時,汽車業、零售業、建築業。

經濟下跌時,菸草公司、飲食公司、公用事業等較看好。


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1 則留言:

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