2020年7月23日 星期四

壓在LCTITAN身上的大山

Lotte Chemical Titan (LCTITAN, 5284),是一家石化生产商。

其产品包括聚烯烃,包括聚乙烯和聚丙烯,以及烯烃,包括乙烯和丙烯以及其他衍生物,例如丁二烯,TBA(叔丁基醇),苯和甲苯。

该公司的报告分部是烯烃和衍生产品以及聚烯烃产品。

该公司在地理上分布于马来西亚,印度尼西亚,中国(包括香港),东南亚,东北亚,印度次大陆等其他地区。

Lotte Chemical Titan 的產品,相信很多人都不是十分了解。

從介紹來看,是化工產品。

相關產品介紹可瀏覽:
https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%81%9A%E7%83%AF%E7%83%83


這類行業在價值鏈不屬於槓桿地位。

它是生產應用材料,這類公司,不能對原料提供者議價錢。

它也不是面對消費群眾而是企業。

因為其競爭力取決於技術、成本和規模,以及競爭環境狀況,這樣才能對客戶議價。

我們看以下它的財務表現。


從 Lotte Chemical Titan 過去6年表現,明顯令人失望。

作為一個景氣循環股票,它最好的時期是2015-2016年。

之後就一路下滑。

低利潤率,顯示它競爭優勢並不突出,只能靠規模和管理維持。

Lotte Chemical Titan 本身流動性充裕,但缺點是資本開支略大了一些。

我們看 Lotte Chemical Titan 幾年股價走勢,從最高4.60跌到2.10。



就實際上,Lotte Chemical Titan 的業績下跌並不是應為營業額真下跌很多,而是銷售成本侵蝕了利潤。

所以,我們就要知道聚烯烃生產所需原料是什麼?

我本人不是真懂聚烯烃,估計它主要原料是石油。

所以把 Lotte Chemical Titan 和油價對比,如下圖:



從圖表看,油價高企似乎對 Lotte Chemical Titan 股價產生抑制作用。

當然,我可能搞錯聚烯烃的生產所需原料,如果你知道,你也可以用同樣法則,把原料價格對比 Lotte Chemical Titan 股價,看二者走勢是否背離?

總之,只要聚烯烃的生產所需原料維持高位, Lotte Chemical Titan 的 ROE,估計很難回到2015-2016年水平。

以我對經濟週期的理解,只有等黃金和石油價格產生泡沫時,你才能考慮逆向投資,買進一些 Lotte Chemical Titan。

在此之前,買 Lotte Chemical Titan 比較危險。

雖然它還是能在某些時間大漲(如2020年三月至截筆至今)。

但大趨勢看,它股價會受到長期抑制,至到原料成本這座大山不再上升為止,才會結束。


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詳細內容可瀏覽

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