在大馬工業股中,Success 是表現算優秀的,從它過去在二板時就如此。
以下是 Success 的財務數據。
真正造成 Success 業績下滑是2018年開始,ROE和ROA都出現顯著下跌。
到底問題出在那裡?
從數據提供的存貨、應收帳和應付賬週轉天書看,並不是營運出現問題。
但對於 Success 來說,供應商要求還款壓力應該加大,所以我們看見它還款週轉天數在減少。
但是從Revenue來看,則有些變化。
Revenue
2016 572.95
2017 395.48
2018 326.14
2019 324.79
2017年後Revenue,2018年也如此,這會不會部分和2018年 Property/Plant/Equipment 項目中減少184.58有部分關係。
但是根據現金流量表,並沒有大筆資產出售的金額,所以這資產減少原因是什麼?
但無論原因如何, Success 資產負債表縮小,以及淨利潤減少是客觀事實。
Net Income
2016 35.61
2017 46.07
2018 7.16
2019 15.27
作為一個散戶,我不可能都知道所有股票的課題變化,所以多數情況都是根據經濟週期和財務數據來觀察公司變化。
如果你是長期追蹤 Success,可許可以告訴我為何資產負債表會萎縮,以及 Revenue 減少的原因。
一般情況下,Revenue 減少要麼是市場被侵蝕,或者是大環境改變又或者是競爭對手因素。
又可能是出售某些業務,使得 Revenue 減少,但問題是 Success 的利潤率並沒有增加反而減少,這就有問題。
到底真相是什麼?
有長期追蹤 Success 的人也許知道,我撰寫此文不是要做深入報告,所以沒有花時間和精力去研究。
但無論如何,我們看看 Success 的過去 Price/Earnings 和 Price/Book。
Success 過去來說,是表現不錯的工業股,但市場對的評價不高。
Price/Earnings 在2010-2014年之間,平均約5倍;
201年以後除2017年7倍外,最高14倍,目前12倍。
顯然 Success 價值是2015年後才被發現。
但工業股最好以 Price/Book 為準。
其Price/Book如下:
2010 1.01
2011 0.72
2012 0.61
2013 0.78
2014 0.82
2015 1.05
2016 0.84
2017 0.90
2018 0.39
2019 0.71
Current 0.43
Success 最好時期, Price/Book 也很少超過1倍。
可見它不是很被市場重視。
以現在0.43水平,看似便宜。
雖然 Success 規模在縮小,但現金流量還是很不錯。
你需要搞明白為何它規模縮小的原因,若未來趨勢不變,再便宜也不要買。
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