2020年7月9日 星期四

大公司GCB的買進時機

Guan Chong Bhd(GCB, 5102),从事可可脂,可可饼,可可粉和可可来源的食品配料的投资控股,制造,分销和贸易。

从地域上看,该集团在马来西亚,新加坡和印度尼西亚开展业务,其中主要收入来自新加坡。

Guan Chong Bhd 長期以來業績不是很理想,ROE並不高。

但2016年後就出現顯著成長。

但實際上,Revenue 真正成長的只是2019年,如下:

Revenue
2016 2315.87
2017 2147.91
2018 2273.42
2019 2941.63

EPS
2016 0.09
2017 0.1
2018 0.2
2019 0.21

但在當前經濟衰退的背景下,2019年業績恐怕很難保持。

Guan Chong Bhd 雖然是一間收入基礎穩定的大公司,但有其缺點,就是產品屬於鬥價錢型,故只能以量來壓低成本取勝。

這也是它毛利率低的原因,就算這三年業績進步,仍不能擺脫這格局。

也許就是如此,它市盈率長期維持在7-12之間。

未來可見估計仍不能擺脫7-12的市盈率。

但無論如何,作為一家營業額有29億令吉的大企業,它還是有一定投資價值。

這裡,我先假定它會受損於經濟衰退,但還是會復甦回2016-2019年水平,那就可以估算它的價值,大概介於10-1

2倍市盈率。

以目前2.80,12.26市盈率股價,它不是理想買入價值。

所以建議還是等反彈結束,股市再次回落時,才進場。


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