黃金期貨價格持續大幅下跌，為何金飾沒大幅跟跌？
因為這是實物。畢竟每件珠寶的設計與品牌帶來的附加價值不同。另外還要考量到珠寶生產當下的製造與運輸等成本，故難因黃金期貨價格一時的崩跌而在之後出現相應的調降幅度。
當然，短期來看，期貨價格下跌還是可能影響實物的。例如我們投資型的金條銀條，金幣銀幣的價格都大幅度下跌。（我好恨自己沒錢入貨）
但是，他可以跌破成本價嗎？期貨價格可以永遠低於成本價嗎？
根據高盛銀行預測報告指出，黃金價格一旦跌破1200美元，許多黃金生產商將難以為繼，可能讓金礦業在2017年後，遭遇嚴重風險。
摩根自然資源基金經理人薩頓(James Sutton)亦告訴CNBC說：「我們認為讓黃金礦業遭遇困境的水平是在1200美元。」
竟然如此，為何放空黃金的高盛銀行卻還預測自2017年以後的黃金長期價格預測為1200美元？
這不合常理。如果是金價低於成本價，金礦商就會減產，黃金會因為供應減少而價格上漲。因為黃金白銀本來就是稀少金屬，是不可能出現爛價格的。更何況，高盛說黃金自2017年以後的價格為1200美元，難道高盛有天眼通？可以看到這麼遠？
再看高盛說下去，我笑了！我終於明白華爾街的陰謀了！
高盛認為既然未來金價如此低，所以建議金礦生產商為2013年及爾後，鎖定目前的黃金價格。
鎖定目前的黃金價格你知道是怎麼回事嗎？
就是要金礦生產商用一些金融衍生產品，例如期貨，來對沖黃金的下跌。也就是要金礦生產商買黃金下跌，只要黃金下跌，他們就能從期貨上賺到錢來彌補實物生產的損失。而這些還沒挖出來的黃金則預先賣給華爾街的貴金屬公司，如JP Morgan和高盛自己。
這種手法就是過去華爾街打壓黃金的武器之一，不過這武器自從搞垮一家南非金礦公司後，金礦公司就已經大量減少，現在幾乎都不搞了！
還有，通過這方法華爾街可以預先得到黃金，充實他們的庫存。我推斷，這也許是幫助美國政府還黃金給德國有關吧！
美國要分７年時間還德國部分幾百噸的黃金，分７年也意味注德國的黃金被美國私吞了！打壓金價可以降低還給德國的成本。
但是，恐怕現在不同以前了！華爾街這招的效果恐怕大不如前了！
1980-2001年，華爾街之所以可以打壓金價２０年，關鍵原因就是當時黃金生產成本比期貨價格還要低。雖然我得不到數據獲知當時的價格，不過根據２０００年的生產成本推斷，１９８０年的生產成本應該不會高過２００美元一盎司。
而當時金價從８５０美元一盎司價格下跌，之後２０年在３００－５００美元盤整，因為價格仍高於成本價，所以華爾街可以讓金礦公司不大量減產下繼續提供黃金，讓歐美中央銀行大量傾銷黃金。
但是，現在不同過去了！黃金生產成本和期貨價格沒有多少空間差距，華爾街想要靠打壓黃金期貨價格低於成本價，誘使黃金礦商重新對沖金價，幫助華爾街打壓金價，我仍為不大可能。更何況，黃金實物的需求仍維持高位，各國中央銀行並不會為金價的下跌而停止購買，因為他們是買來收的。比起黃金，他們更擔心美元。
如果華爾街強硬將黃金期貨價格打壓到生產成本以下，我不知道其他金礦商的ＣＥＯ會怎樣想。如果是我，我乾脆繞過黃金期貨交易市場，當這市場根本不存在，反正期貨市場根本就不能反映真實的商品價格，因為它是用紙交易來決定價格，而非實物交易。
最後，實物市場會自己走自己的路。也許你會看到期貨金價５００美元，實物價格５０００美元的情況。
自這幾天金銀期貨市場大屠殺，但是Comex的黃金庫存只是增加一點點，而白銀庫忖則更加減少（截至15/4/2013）
剛才我打電話去Nubex，問他為何在金銀大跌的這幾天，為何他們的金銀存貨會減少如此多？
對方回答因為出現更多的買潮，甚至連Pre-order也沒有貨了！
在2011年金價從1910暴跌時，GoldSilver.com的麥克馬尼龍和幾家美國主要的貴金屬交易商，出現３個月拿不到黃金新貨的情況，白銀只有一款可以拿到而已。
明白嗎？為何我們要實物！
下文是轉載！
實物與期貨較量──金市大戰
金價繼續大跌，發生甚麼事？似乎有人心急如熱鍋上螞蟻，要盡快把金價打下去，嚇退持有實物者，令他們盡快沽貨！看看近期Comex的實金儲備，嚇死人！儲備急速減少，其中又以超級大戶JP Morgan的持貨量，由1月至今，大幅減少！即是說有人正向JP Morgan發動提貨戰！
甚麼人呢？其中馬田大師在網誌中提到，歐洲有人從Comex倉庫提金：
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/14/gold-inventories-shifting-to-europe/
另外，早幾日，Kingworldnews提到來自上海的提貨者單單於3月就提走了283噸：
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/12_Maguire_-_Over_500_Tons_Of_Paper_Gold_Sold_In_Takedown.html
Maguire：Deliveries in Shanghai alone in March were 283 tons. In the eight trading days of April, we have seen another 117 tons (of gold) delivered. Today was another 20 tons delivered. So what we are looking at here is over 400 tons (of gold) in less than a month and a half.
另外市場貨源短缺，有人被夾得很慘：
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/13_Haynes_-_Were_On_The_Verge_Of_Major_Gold_%26_Silver_Shortages.html
歐洲可能將有大事發生！如此提貨，如果提貨者繼續，或大眾持續買入實金，有一個可能出現，黃金期貨市場關門！持有所有Paper黃金者，包括期金，倫敦金，紙黃金要小心！大戰將會繼續，請坐穩！如有實貨市場動向，歡迎報告！小弟這幾日會入貨！希望趕得及買！(今天仍分身不下)
結語：
我推測，這也許是華爾街 vs 市場經濟，或者紙金銀 vs 實物金銀 的最後一場大戰了！
如果華爾街和紙金銀戰勝，金銀價格可能又會被壓制幾年。但是，我還是選擇市場經濟和實物金銀會取得最後勝利。
因為我從來沒有聽過紙幣可以戰勝金銀的案例。
就像你下個賭注，假如世界末日，你認為人類存貨的機率高，還是蟑螂存活的機率高？
讓我們看下去，如果實物庫存還是繼續留出，華爾街就大條了！
附上：金銀生產成本資料
很多人根本搞不清楚金銀的生產成本，因為金銀礦公司從不提供數據，只能有各種機構自行調查。
通常，我們在年報中看到的是不全面的現金成本（Cash Costs）。
下圖是全球最大的金礦公司Barrick的cash costs，請注意，是否出高速成本增長？這漲幅是否提供了黃金價格上漲合理的依據？
在看全球經營效率最好的銀礦公司Pan American Silver的Cash Costs。
請記得，這些都不是完全的成本，
看回這成本，你相信黃金白銀真是泡沫嗎？
金價下跌 大陸客湧進香港買金 金鋪門庭若市
鉅亨網新聞中心 2013-04-16 13:44:42
金價下跌刺激金飾銷售，旺角幾乎所有金鋪的黃金櫃檯都被顧客逼爆，店員應接不暇，與周圍其他商品專櫃的門庭冷落形成鮮明對比。有顧客甚至花半天時間精心挑選各款黃金飾品，更有許多顧客在旺角多家不同品牌的金鋪出出入入。店員向記者透露，3天前入鋪光顧的購金客就明顯增多。
《星島日報》報導，現場所見，詢問和購買黃金首飾的以大陸客居多，許多大陸遊客表示被金價下跌吸引，紛紛攜親友赴港買金，一是為自用，二是為保值，多數人對黃金未來的升值潛力仍非常有信心。
來自廣州的胡先生表示，受到金價連日下跌的吸引，過來香港給孩子買金手鐲。他認為黃金始終屬於稀有金屬，不可能一直下跌，相信金價總有一天會回升。來自深圳的黃小姐指，見到金價下跌，便告訴親友，一齊來港買金吊墜，相信就算跌價也不會跌到太低。
錢先生自稱來自北京，本來只是來香港出差，恰逢金價下跌這個好時機，就買個金手鐲給女友，相信黃金日後會增值。來自深圳的閻小姐表示，自己本來就有 經常來港購金的習慣，但近來金價跌了很多，便趁此機會買多些；又表示完全不擔心金價會繼續下跌。她同丈夫和母親來港不過一日，已購買3萬多元的金飾。
周大福發言人指出，集團目前仍然是以賣出黃金為主，金價大跌之後，雖然擔心金價續跌而沽出黃金的人數有所增加，但增加更多的是前來買金客人，其中有自用也有投資。
另外，金價暴跌令K金回收也受影響，香港珠寶玉石廠商會理事陳日強估計，金價下跌令回收金生意減少約1成。K金回收站負責人陳先生估計，近兩日整體 回收生意額跌約3成，查詢電話亦由高峰期的近百個跌至近日的10多個，當中以足金金器跌勢最明顯，因不少客人以為K金價值低，願意以低價割愛，反而變賣足 金金器的態度較審慎，他又預期未來金價仍有機會下調1成。
《星島日報》報導，現場所見，詢問和購買黃金首飾的以大陸客居多，許多大陸遊客表示被金價下跌吸引，紛紛攜親友赴港買金，一是為自用，二是為保值，多數人對黃金未來的升值潛力仍非常有信心。
錢先生自稱來自北京，本來只是來香港出差，恰逢金價下跌這個好時機，就買個金手鐲給女友，相信黃金日後會增值。來自深圳的閻小姐表示，自己本來就有 經常來港購金的習慣，但近來金價跌了很多，便趁此機會買多些；又表示完全不擔心金價會繼續下跌。她同丈夫和母親來港不過一日，已購買3萬多元的金飾。
周大福發言人指出，集團目前仍然是以賣出黃金為主，金價大跌之後，雖然擔心金價續跌而沽出黃金的人數有所增加，但增加更多的是前來買金客人，其中有自用也有投資。
另外，金價暴跌令K金回收也受影響，香港珠寶玉石廠商會理事陳日強估計，金價下跌令回收金生意減少約1成。K金回收站負責人陳先生估計，近兩日整體 回收生意額跌約3成，查詢電話亦由高峰期的近百個跌至近日的10多個，當中以足金金器跌勢最明顯，因不少客人以為K金價值低，願意以低價割愛，反而變賣足 金金器的態度較審慎，他又預期未來金價仍有機會下調1成。
最新消息：芝加哥商业交易所(CME)表示，将在周二收盘提高黄金、白银与其它贵金属期货保证金要求。
Comex 100金衡盎司黄金期货的保证金将被提高19%，白银期货保证金将提高18%，钯保证金提高14%，铂提高19%，天然气期货保证金将提高5.6%。
在金銀價格暴跌時還上調保证金？
正常情況應該是下跌時降低保證金，哪有上調的？
分明就是要趁機打落金銀價格水狗。
自荷蘭銀行無法提交金銀實物後，全球交易所和銀行出現大幅度的黃金白銀提取，華爾街就即刻對金銀漲開攻擊。
看到底使紙金銀利害，還是最後實物金銀才會成為最後的勝利者。
反正，我看死華爾街拖不了多久，１０年內全球金融體系和美元本位必定出現大地震。
ALL US WHOLESALERS SOLD OUT OF ALL PHYSICAL SILVER!!!
April 15, 2013 By The Doc 78 Comments
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*UPDATE: ALL US WHOLESALE SUPPLIERS ARE NOW SOLD OUT OF EVERY OUNCE OF PHYSICAL SILVER & HAVE SUSPENDED ALL SALES!
SDBullion.com has closed due to lack of ANY AVAILABLE SILVER!
Two of the largest wholesale suppliers in the US, including Amark and CNT, who is the supplier of gold blanks to the US Mint for Gold Eagles, and is a registered COMEX depository, HAVE JUST SOLD OUT OF ALL PHYSICAL SILVER!!!
AND……IT’S GONE!!!!!
In the face of an EPIC TSUNAMI of gold and silver sales today as the cartel hammered the price of silver down over 12%, and off $6 from Friday’s open, we have just been informed at SDBullion upon trying to place a large inventory order that BOTH AMARK & CNT ARE SOLD OUT OF EVERY LAST OUNCE OF PHYSICAL SILVER!!!
Apparently the fact that one of the largest wholesale suppliers in the US is SOLD OUT, while simultaneously the 2nd largest silver mine in the US is offline perhaps permanently is of absolutely no consequence to the paper dumping cartel bullion banks.
Bullion bank silver shorts are most likely covering in mass RIGHT NOW, and we’ll soon have the data to make the case. Many have speculated that the bullion banks are going to switch to a net long position. There couldn’t be a better time to do just that given that at $22/oz, pretty much all existing shorts taken out before this week will be in the money.
ALL US WHOLESALERS SOLD OUT OF ALL PHYSICAL SILVER!!!
April 15, 2013 By The Doc 78 Comments
Tweet
*UPDATE: ALL US WHOLESALE SUPPLIERS ARE NOW SOLD OUT OF EVERY OUNCE OF PHYSICAL SILVER & HAVE SUSPENDED ALL SALES!
SDBullion.com has closed due to lack of ANY AVAILABLE SILVER!
Two of the largest wholesale suppliers in the US, including Amark and CNT, who is the supplier of gold blanks to the US Mint for Gold Eagles, and is a registered COMEX depository, HAVE JUST SOLD OUT OF ALL PHYSICAL SILVER!!!
AND……IT’S GONE!!!!!
In the face of an EPIC TSUNAMI of gold and silver sales today as the cartel hammered the price of silver down over 12%, and off $6 from Friday’s open, we have just been informed at SDBullion upon trying to place a large inventory order that BOTH AMARK & CNT ARE SOLD OUT OF EVERY LAST OUNCE OF PHYSICAL SILVER!!!
Apparently the fact that one of the largest wholesale suppliers in the US is SOLD OUT, while simultaneously the 2nd largest silver mine in the US is offline perhaps permanently is of absolutely no consequence to the paper dumping cartel bullion banks.
Bullion bank silver shorts are most likely covering in mass RIGHT NOW, and we’ll soon have the data to make the case. Many have speculated that the bullion banks are going to switch to a net long position. There couldn’t be a better time to do just that given that at $22/oz, pretty much all existing shorts taken out before this week will be in the money.
6 則留言:
I'm not dare to say if the recent drop on gold price is bearish sign or just a correction. Two things I am certain.
Firstly, if you did not invest in stock market in 2009, you are not making money. Mr Market has proved you wrong on this.
Secondly, if you had chosen gold during 2009, your margin is thin. Also, high possibility that you need longer time to realize your return. Doesn't matter, we should take all investment as long term after all...
Good Luck...
The 10 Rules of Goldbuggery
1. Gold is a Currency: This is rule number 1. It is not a decorative or industrial metal, it is a permanent store of value, as dictated by Greeks in Lydia around 700 B.C. And, it shall be ever thus.
2. The price of gold cannot fall, it can only be manipulated lower: When gold’s price falls, it is an unnatural act. It can only occur as the result of an international cabal of Central Bankers and politicians. Its a conspiracy, and we know who the guilty parties are.
2B. If the price of gold is rising, it is doing so despite enormous and desperate efforts by manipulators to prevent the rise: This is the corollary to the prior Rule of Gold manipulation. Gold runs up despite the overwhelming opposition to it.
3. The world MUST return to the Gold Standard one day: It is inevitable that we will return to a Gold Standard. We all know this to be true. When we compare the size of the money supply to past amounts when there was a Gold Standard, we can derive prices of Gold in the $7,000, $10,000 even $15,000. Hence, we know its cheap even at $2,000.
4. Central Bankers are printing money relentlessly, and this can only drive Gold prices higher: NOTE: You must ignore, for the moment, that Gold has not gone higher for the past 2 years as Central Banks around the world have ramped up QE. This only means that ultimately, Gold will go much much higher.
5. Gold works whether the economy is good or bad: When we have a red hot economy, Gold is your hedge against inflation. When we have a bad economy, Gold is a safe harbor against collapse. It is a one way trade that never fails!
6. Gold will survive after the world economy crumbles: Gold is the ultimate currency, as it has a value that will survive even after the whole world tumbles around. Get yourself some gold coins and a Glock and you will be just fine when the whole world goes to shit. We welcome the era envisioned in the movie Mad Max.
7. Gold is a rejection of government, and their control of fiat money and finance: There are no printing presses that produce gold, it is finite, natural and God created. How much we scrape out of the ground each year is limited, and the only variable to the old equation. (Just ignore Man’s natural tendency to organize into to City-States over the past 12,000 years).
8. All Gold discussions must contain ominous macro forecasts: Your description of why Gold is going higher must consist of spurious correlations, unprovable predictions, and a guarded expectation of bad things int he future. Avoid empirical data at all costs.
9. Gold is always rallying in one currency or another: Sure, it may be down 30% in Dollars, the reserve currency it is priced in, but you can always find a currency falling faster than it does and claim you own it in that denomination. Last week, it was up in Japanese Yen. This week, it is up in Zimbabwe dollars.
10. China & India know the value of Gold; the Western world does not: The massive buying of gold by consumers in Chindia reflects the culture, intelligence and investing savvy of the people in these countries. The West doesn’t get it, and its their loss.
Bonus rule: Never admit Gold might be falling because it trades on human emotions and psychology and has no intrinsic value whatsoever.
The enormous amounts of dollars involved in the Gold trade has attracted all manner of charlatans and frauds to the Gold trade. Although this list can help you separate the true believers from the criminals, time has proven them to be both are enormous money losers.
Ignore the risks of being a gold bug at great peril to your portfolio . . .
by Barry Ritholtz
請問上調保證金不是對買雙方都不利嗎??
如何看出這是打壓金價??
據報導~他們宣稱上調保證金是為了
避免波動性過大..
FED印鈔票也說成刺激經濟，為何他不說是讓美元貶值
chin yong cheong，謝謝你的忠告。
但是，我還是走我的策略，未來幾年我不會買股票，至少時機不到。
因為我看到你看不到的東西。’
我看穿貨幣幻覺的經濟和投資真相，你看穿了嗎？
請多來我blog，也許哪一天你能看出我的point。
張貼留言