逆勢投資的困難

逆勢投資是很難掌握最準確的時機的。

所以只要你所收集的資料肯定現在是歷史低檔區，就可以分批買進。

雖然技術分析可以輔助我們，但是也只能輔助我們一段時間的價格，而不能肯定告訴我們以後會不會反轉再跌至更低。

圖表分析是在順勢分析更為容易。

在油价近十二年来首次跌破30美元之前几天，巴菲特的伯克希尔买进了一些石油巨头Phillips 66的股票。

以下是Phillips 66的股票業務介紹：

Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining and marketing and specialties businesses. The Company operates its business through four segments: midstream, chemicals, refining and marketing and specialties. It gathers, processes, transports and markets natural gas, and transports, fractionates and markets natural gas liquids (NGL) in the United States. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics. The Chemicals segment consists of its 50% equity investment in Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC (CPChem). The refining segment buys, sells and refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products (such as gasolines, distillates and aviation fuels) at 14 refineries, mainly in the United States and Europe. The Marketing and Specialties segment purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products (such as gasolines, distillates and aviation fuels), mainly in the United States and Europe.

有人說巴菲特（Warren Buffett）是在原油市场的凄风苦雨中嗅到了机会的味道。

從介紹看，這樣公司應該是從事中，下游的業務，所以油價下跌，它的收入雖然減少，但是傷害也較低。

當然，一但油價反彈，它雖然也會受益，但是漲幅應該不會超越上游公司。