tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-80937315413502872502024-03-05T02:41:46.688-08:00阿弟@投資世界阿弟是我的小名,這裡主要的文章是紀錄我投資/投機的心念。阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.comBlogger1843125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-17128654382619521672020-07-28T20:08:00.003-07:002020-07-28T20:08:40.449-07:00未来爆发的财富大转移<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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一个社会,各阶层的财富必然不平等,这是正常的。<br />
<br />
但只要不出现过份贫富悬殊,这就是一个稳定社会。<br />
<br />
但是,有两个方法可以扩大贫富悬殊,让社会财富从社会中低层转移到高层。 <br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">1)过度无节制的自由经济。</span></b><br />
<br />
自由经济是好事,但自由到极端就没有自由,所以需要部分计划经济,如公用产品则必须公有和国家发展方向。<br />
<br />
越倾向于绝对自由的经济,越不能达到平衡财富分配,只是造成弱肉强食的丛林法则。<br />
<br />
因为越有优势者会运用自己资源消灭一切潜在对手,比一般人民更额容易取得财富资源。<br />
<br />
例如土地兼并,当大量土地过度集中在少数人手上时,人民的财富就会想对逐渐萎缩而贫穷。<br />
<br />
毕竟有资本的人比一般人民,更有资本兼并土地,而一般人民的时间精力都用在找三餐,购买土地对一般人来说是脱离现实的理想。<br />
<br />
人类历史上,只要施行过度自由经济,都会造成贫富差距扩大,危及社会稳定。<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">2)通货膨胀</span></b><br />
<br />
通过不断贬值的货币,可以把财富从普罗大众手中转移到少数1%的人手上,这种财富掠夺,凯恩斯说过100万人,也未必有1人明白。这是因为在有一定生产力的国家,财富都是以持有财富象征的货币为主。<br />
<br />
而人有一个问题,就是很容易落入货币幻觉,就是受货币数目价格影响,往往忽略了货币的实际购买力。<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">总结:</span></b><br />
<br />
美元目前是国际货币,所以它可以影响到世界经济。<br />
<br />
美国奉行的新自由主义是造成贫富悬殊的主因之一,并籍美元本位让贫富悬殊病毒全球扩散。<br />
<br />
美国结构性的经济问题无解,所以不断QE再QE,制造通货膨胀来延缓问题。<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">对于普通老百姓,买一点金币银币,金条银条来自保吧!</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-77488970298689666142020-07-23T21:30:00.001-07:002020-07-23T21:30:17.390-07:00壓在LCTITAN身上的大山 Lotte Chemical Titan (LCTITAN, 5284),是一家石化生产商。<br />
<br />
其产品包括聚烯烃,包括聚乙烯和聚丙烯,以及烯烃,包括乙烯和丙烯以及其他衍生物,例如丁二烯,TBA(叔丁基醇),苯和甲苯。<br />
<br />
该公司的报告分部是烯烃和衍生产品以及聚烯烃产品。<br />
<br />
该公司在地理上分布于马来西亚,印度尼西亚,中国(包括香港),东南亚,东北亚,印度次大陆等其他地区。<br />
<br />
Lotte Chemical Titan 的產品,相信很多人都不是十分了解。<br />
<br />
從介紹來看,是化工產品。<br />
<br />
相關產品介紹可瀏覽:<br />
<a href="https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%81%9A%E7%83%AF%E7%83%83">https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E8%81%9A%E7%83%AF%E7%83%83</a><br />
<br />
<br />
這類行業在價值鏈不屬於槓桿地位。<br />
<br />
它是生產應用材料,這類公司,不能對原料提供者議價錢。<br />
<br />
它也不是面對消費群眾而是企業。<br />
<br />
因為其競爭力取決於技術、成本和規模,以及競爭環境狀況,這樣才能對客戶議價。<br />
<br />
我們看以下它的財務表現。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
<br />
從 Lotte Chemical Titan 過去6年表現,明顯令人失望。<br />
<br />
作為一個景氣循環股票,它最好的時期是2015-2016年。<br />
<br />
之後就一路下滑。<br />
<br />
低利潤率,顯示它競爭優勢並不突出,只能靠規模和管理維持。<br />
<br />
Lotte Chemical Titan 本身流動性充裕,但缺點是資本開支略大了一些。<br />
<br />
我們看 Lotte Chemical Titan 幾年股價走勢,從最高4.60跌到2.10。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpwy_o7iwVSD-3xDJEBpV3BDEayKtfufrBOE0h0IgD0BvKHkL3vYphTt_qESNyqU3pvlmyNh32UtwphGNxckp5UA7nFjxgEzT5g-k1v0xc1msfM1tqoK0SNkx4ovvg8A9NNud9yDU-LHAo/s1600/Lotte-CHART.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="565" data-original-width="1034" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpwy_o7iwVSD-3xDJEBpV3BDEayKtfufrBOE0h0IgD0BvKHkL3vYphTt_qESNyqU3pvlmyNh32UtwphGNxckp5UA7nFjxgEzT5g-k1v0xc1msfM1tqoK0SNkx4ovvg8A9NNud9yDU-LHAo/s400/Lotte-CHART.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
就實際上,Lotte Chemical Titan 的業績下跌並不是應為營業額真下跌很多,而是銷售成本侵蝕了利潤。<br />
<br />
所以,我們就要知道聚烯烃生產所需原料是什麼?<br />
<br />
我本人不是真懂聚烯烃,估計它主要原料是石油。<br />
<br />
所以把 Lotte Chemical Titan 和油價對比,如下圖:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXlCdcVmGO9M-wyaXg1PS7oeRKkDsZRoa5TXmL_p3Ow8da_NNCU4UxjJtH_0lpAksHNbT2H78xiXutgeehu54eyHn7hrq6MsWIvX5cPpSQgThrY52HnK7nkTYhcXBcFVKf-Z_ASj5N7ehQ/s1600/Lotte-CHART2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="391" data-original-width="593" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXlCdcVmGO9M-wyaXg1PS7oeRKkDsZRoa5TXmL_p3Ow8da_NNCU4UxjJtH_0lpAksHNbT2H78xiXutgeehu54eyHn7hrq6MsWIvX5cPpSQgThrY52HnK7nkTYhcXBcFVKf-Z_ASj5N7ehQ/s400/Lotte-CHART2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
從圖表看,油價高企似乎對 Lotte Chemical Titan 股價產生抑制作用。<br />
<br />
當然,我可能搞錯聚烯烃的生產所需原料,如果你知道,你也可以用同樣法則,把原料價格對比 Lotte Chemical Titan 股價,看二者走勢是否背離?<br />
<br />
總之,只要聚烯烃的生產所需原料維持高位, Lotte Chemical Titan 的 ROE,估計很難回到2015-2016年水平。<br />
<br />
以我對經濟週期的理解,只有等黃金和石油價格產生泡沫時,你才能考慮逆向投資,買進一些 Lotte Chemical Titan。<br />
<br />
在此之前,買 Lotte Chemical Titan 比較危險。<br />
<br />
雖然它還是能在某些時間大漲(如2020年三月至截筆至今)。<br />
<br />
但大趨勢看,它股價會受到長期抑制,至到原料成本這座大山不再上升為止,才會結束。<br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,不會东说一点,西说一点,而是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-48315775390894038152020-07-23T01:29:00.000-07:002020-07-23T01:29:25.497-07:00經濟週期的投資熱點風水輪流轉!股市的特點是什麼?就是變化。因此投資策略也應該永遠是變化的,與時俱進的,不能一成不變。不能看去年的老黃歷!<br />
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國家發展的過程中,不同時期會出現不同的股市的題材,如果你能捉到任何一個,你就可以大賺。這些題材有時會因為市場過熱而形成泡沫,你當然可以享受這泡沫帶來的上漲過程,但是頭腦絕對要清醒,做好隨時出場的準備。<br />
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主要發現宏觀或者微觀出現不利的苗頭,最好分批出貨,至於你是否能察覺不利的苗頭,取決於你自己的能力。<br />
<br />
公司價值是動態且無精確的,只能大概計算。好像景氣循環公司,在行情淡的時候市盈率很低,好景的時候市盈率特別高,你根本不能準確的掌握價值,只能跟隨趨勢走。<br />
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公司的價值會隨著時代的變遷,行業的週期,公司的盈餘而變動。<br />
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美國就經歷了幾次行業變遷的不同週期的投資熱點,像:<br />
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<span style="color: red;">20世級20-30年代:鐵路、公用事業</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;">30-40年代:鋼鐵、汽車等工業公司</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;">50年代:鋁工業、地毯</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;">60年代:電子工業、塑膠工業-美蘇進行太空競爭有關(名字和電子太空沾邊都起)</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;">70年代:石油業-中東戰爭,石油危機,石油輸出國提高油價</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;">80年代:醫藥業-愛滋病蔓延及美國人對健康日益關切</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;">90年代:電腦科技業-個人電腦和網際網絡普及</span><br />
<br />
2008年金融危機爆發後的未來呢?......納米科技、生物科技、清潔能源...還是醫療養老行業?<br />
<br />
馬來西亞也經歷過錫、橡膠,原產品生產(人造膠淘汰天然膠,因石油便宜)。之後有工業、電子、油棕。<br />
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香港經歷過塑膠、地產、海運出入口、貿易、金融。<br />
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行業的價值鏈改變,像數碼代替了膠片(film to digital)。<br />
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經濟週期的變化雖然影響所有的股票,但影響的程度和先後不同。一般來說,在經濟復甦早期階段,科技股如電腦、軟件、半導體,金融股如銀行、保險、證券,以及石油、耐用消費品公司等較看好。<br />
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經濟進入高漲期後,機器製造、工程建築、電力設備等較看好。<br />
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經濟高峰時,汽車業、零售業、建築業。<br />
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經濟下跌時,菸草公司、飲食公司、公用事業等較看好。<br />
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-28943392987002806382020-07-16T00:19:00.001-07:002020-07-16T00:19:05.397-07:00手套股強弩之末了嗎?手套股,是因為新冠疫情而暴漲的,遽聞手套股的訂單已經透支兩年了!<br />
<br />
這也意味一但疫情恐慌好轉,手套股票會因為股價過度透支,而出現大暴跌,生意量也會減少,如現在口罩一樣。<br />
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現在問題是,手套股已經是強弩之末了嗎?<br />
<br />
我們看下面 TOPGLOVE 技術分析日圖。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBaj8Bortk9kSmUl8pvfeiMbZsgWCgwQvn-CWDrwO3OAlfYoo3Y9WigG-mQXj6to7hUpLXFm_hX-6UACZbT8UXRquGFSBhUiCqWf7fn3WHuskIcptuAHoa1SLHtsu0706Oh0irOh-NUsWk/s1600/T-D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="562" data-original-width="1023" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBaj8Bortk9kSmUl8pvfeiMbZsgWCgwQvn-CWDrwO3OAlfYoo3Y9WigG-mQXj6to7hUpLXFm_hX-6UACZbT8UXRquGFSBhUiCqWf7fn3WHuskIcptuAHoa1SLHtsu0706Oh0irOh-NUsWk/s400/T-D.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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除了六月初出現回調外,但很快又漲新高,最近幾天出現回跌。<br />
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從技術看,六月初出現回調後的上升,現在各種技術工具已經出現顯著下跌,唯還不是非常非常明顯,因為布林上線沒有往下,<br />
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MACD也沒有死亡交叉。<br />
<br />
HARTA 的技術分析日圖也如此,不過下跌信號更不明顯,比 TOPGLOVE 來得強勢。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzH7e0pK_-BSel3jJiB8zegbiDPf8wl9JRvK7cCkyTafnYJzLZMKdynidmKfxg0Xo-5kg12S9wbYMy9PZSsGYCCA7a_3zp4c270w8oUQE0G1ScGqpPaAon80-E5oVhtVuFLoDUxmE2iime/s1600/H-D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="558" data-original-width="1019" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzH7e0pK_-BSel3jJiB8zegbiDPf8wl9JRvK7cCkyTafnYJzLZMKdynidmKfxg0Xo-5kg12S9wbYMy9PZSsGYCCA7a_3zp4c270w8oUQE0G1ScGqpPaAon80-E5oVhtVuFLoDUxmE2iime/s400/H-D.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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KOSSAN 下跌信號也一樣不明顯,雖然有信號,但不夠強。介於 TOPGLOVE 和 HARTA 之間。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsyOfX70BDGVbMNPyzoOITXatStl2ZeHDshwwT-geS-yNDPctWPx9JWIKOo40Fk_rkFdWkgZNeknIk8jIHg_ZXzkRfSgmbFgFTuaIUhJpNTFi2Z0NJFh-ajthqyI8ySjnVyFCslpxz7U_3/s1600/K-D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="1048" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsyOfX70BDGVbMNPyzoOITXatStl2ZeHDshwwT-geS-yNDPctWPx9JWIKOo40Fk_rkFdWkgZNeknIk8jIHg_ZXzkRfSgmbFgFTuaIUhJpNTFi2Z0NJFh-ajthqyI8ySjnVyFCslpxz7U_3/s400/K-D.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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下來,我們分別看這三支股票的技術分析周圖。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi52Lspg4qMF2C1aMdPqxCle_XO2k196D8OXZgQzNzpxTq_zLB22sqos-CiL7wKZWDOTfnSj2AJ9Jrt_bf8bup2O9cxiEMLyEyzwa3E_QaaJIiaT11agt-IrDr5j6ysHU6kWVnzcwva9nn3/s1600/H-W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="574" data-original-width="1047" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi52Lspg4qMF2C1aMdPqxCle_XO2k196D8OXZgQzNzpxTq_zLB22sqos-CiL7wKZWDOTfnSj2AJ9Jrt_bf8bup2O9cxiEMLyEyzwa3E_QaaJIiaT11agt-IrDr5j6ysHU6kWVnzcwva9nn3/s400/H-W.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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從周圖看,TOPGLOVE 的確出現強弩之末的信號。<br />
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它股價升到極端布林上線處,MACD柱子連續5星期沒有創新高,stoch rsi 和 chaikin osc 出現和股價背離現象。<br />
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同樣情況,KOSSAN 和 HARTA 也出現,三者差異在週圖看起來差異不大。<br />
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一般上,周圖出現背離現象會比較少見,會出現都是因為一個趨勢持續時間比較久才造成。<br />
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也因為這背離是在比較久的時間累積而成,其信號準確性更高。<br />
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因為同行都出現相同走勢,所以準確性會更高。<br />
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<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">總結:</span></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>最後,我們回歸疫情。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>現在全球確診病例和死亡人數不斷創新高,但主要集中在美國、巴西和印度。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>大多數國家都已經好轉。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>這裡假定沒有疫情第二波,那手套股回調概率就很高。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>但美國、巴西和印度至今看不見有好轉的跡象(除非病毒自然消失),所以回調最嚴重,大概會跌到布林中線,不大可能跌到布</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>林下線位置。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>當然,如果真在九月、十月出現疫情第二波,那就另當別論了!</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>可是,手套股真的會回調嗎?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>回調是大概率的,問題是會回調多少?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>也有可能回調水平只是6月份類似水平,如此就沒必要離場?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>但也有可能回調到布林中線位置?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>總之,我們很難斷定以一兩個月時間論,手套股會回調多少?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>根據自己過去長期的錯誤,我確定了一條守則:你不可能準確掌握最高,如果認為很高,可以選擇分批賣出。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>這樣無論你估計是對還是錯,你都不會輸完,當然也不會贏完。</b><br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,不會东说一点,西说一点,而是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-10695345810056158792020-07-13T22:37:00.002-07:002020-07-13T22:37:27.281-07:00KKB的成長可持續嗎?KKB Engineering Bhd(KKB),从事钢结构制造,民用建筑,热浸镀锌和液化石油气(LPG)气瓶的制造。<br />
<br />
它分为两个部分,即工程和建设,以及制造业。<br />
<br />
工程和建筑部门包括土木工程和建筑,钢铁制造和热浸镀锌。<br />
<br />
制造部门制造液化石油气瓶,钢管和相关产品。<br />
<br />
它的大部分收入来自工程和建筑领域。<br />
<br />
以下是它的 Revenue 和 EPS,基本上都有一定的派息:<br />
<br />
<b>Revenue</b><br />
<b>2016 103.11</b><br />
<b>2017 209.3<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2018 412.48</b><br />
<b>2019 559.28<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><b> </b></span><br />
<b>EPS</b><br />
<b>2016 -0.02</b><br />
<b>2017 0.01</b><br />
<b>2018 0.07</b><br />
<b>2019 0.18</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>DPS</b><br />
<b>2016 -</b><br />
<b>2017 0.02</b><br />
<b>2018 0.04</b><br />
<b>2019 0.06</b><br />
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1b2bRw3UTTAPcGgslbyr14FGr9kHvCfYN4LNzRpTnk-hXhHVcx3_VnYQFz9EarUrJKaTIzF3xCe4hU_Kl2PQpTCyQDMOm3ciEwmEWSoixj_nKdhcOvWzHWHkcffcp-J5VmL_49_NcQdli/s1600/KKB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="304" data-original-width="884" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1b2bRw3UTTAPcGgslbyr14FGr9kHvCfYN4LNzRpTnk-hXhHVcx3_VnYQFz9EarUrJKaTIzF3xCe4hU_Kl2PQpTCyQDMOm3ciEwmEWSoixj_nKdhcOvWzHWHkcffcp-J5VmL_49_NcQdli/s400/KKB.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
雖然這幾年業務成長快速,但 KKB 從業務來看,明顯是景氣循環股票。<br />
<br />
所以,你不應該指望這種業績可以長期維持下去,一定會隨著經濟週期而起落。<br />
<br />
下面是它長期業績,印證了它是景氣循環股票。<br />
<br />
好景時,各項財務數據都不錯;壞景時,業績會大幅度萎縮甚至虧損。<br />
<br />
既然是景氣週期股票,投資策略就是於景氣低迷是入場,榮景時退場,不能以十年為單位長期持有。<br />
<br />
根據2010-2019它的Price/Book如下:<br />
<br />
<b>2010 2.74</b><br />
<b>2011 1.86</b><br />
<b>2012 1.43</b><br />
<b>2013 2.46</b><br />
<b>2014 1.39</b><br />
<b>2015 1.38</b><br />
<b>2016 1.19</b><br />
<b>2017 0.87</b><br />
<b>2018 0.77</b><br />
<b>2019 1.21</b><br />
<b>CURRENT 1.27</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAwkgfSX5aii1OT96qj53Z6-8j4qycWXDA0I7br1iHGVQcXV3A0crLm5K-E2rxUrpKfqvW3kvRGK1NvXOiPTdS116Aihdr3CZS4Nponst7qU6_bsF5v8zVVob_D4x4k1ybHGzbR48fAIqG/s1600/KKB-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="1227" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiAwkgfSX5aii1OT96qj53Z6-8j4qycWXDA0I7br1iHGVQcXV3A0crLm5K-E2rxUrpKfqvW3kvRGK1NvXOiPTdS116Aihdr3CZS4Nponst7qU6_bsF5v8zVVob_D4x4k1ybHGzbR48fAIqG/s400/KKB-2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
以Price/Book來看,KKB 仍處於相當高的價格,雖然現在股價 1.67 比起高峰時期的 2.30 有明顯回落,但仍處於半山腰。<br />
<br />
而從圖表日圖看,它雖然從三月中隨大勢反彈,但力度不強,顯然市場對於其經濟前景不怎麼看好。<br />
<br />
目前技術上它處於盤整,但周圖又如何呢?<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYGRrOlEjDjOdYG6t4RALQ9ZKsxsAe1n2Nl21hu0Ak4JuawWy4Zf1_Go3a2lFBtBDs5VazEg4t9YR548pJlAhZs4kYxI0nyf2-gCjeShvNXapaoQCi-aSa5BOTI6liheROnCLxmMXqJusF/s1600/KKB-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="1226" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYGRrOlEjDjOdYG6t4RALQ9ZKsxsAe1n2Nl21hu0Ak4JuawWy4Zf1_Go3a2lFBtBDs5VazEg4t9YR548pJlAhZs4kYxI0nyf2-gCjeShvNXapaoQCi-aSa5BOTI6liheROnCLxmMXqJusF/s400/KKB-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
周圖顯示 KKB 有下行壓力,布林上線往下行,股價無法突破布林中線,MACD趨弱。<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>總結:</b><br />
<br />
鑒於當前經濟狀況的推斷,KKB 可享受的榮景已經結束,目前還處於下滑勢頭。<br />
<br />
作為一家景氣循環公司,KKB 業務表現是不錯,但還是不可能逆勢。<br />
<br />
所以應該等它股價隨著經濟週期觸底,才可以考慮進場。<br />
<br />
問題是如何掌握時機?<br />
<br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-89855301064650342992020-07-09T20:14:00.003-07:002020-07-09T20:14:35.742-07:00大公司GCB的買進時機Guan Chong Bhd(GCB, 5102),从事可可脂,可可饼,可可粉和可可来源的食品配料的投资控股,制造,分销和贸易。<br />
<br />
从地域上看,该集团在马来西亚,新加坡和印度尼西亚开展业务,其中主要收入来自新加坡。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsIulvn7d0sd3nH8zqbNsmkTCzIsSDq5hgCslFk8zJk9cr56Tba9UB37uWLE4jYZIF_L1Gb3gb0JaDqBOHw8lBLAnVNjcx_mo9y_RLp9xfu3Dhdi9582HYW39Oxa_gMyEBfnoiwh0ggFrK/s1600/GCB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="779" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsIulvn7d0sd3nH8zqbNsmkTCzIsSDq5hgCslFk8zJk9cr56Tba9UB37uWLE4jYZIF_L1Gb3gb0JaDqBOHw8lBLAnVNjcx_mo9y_RLp9xfu3Dhdi9582HYW39Oxa_gMyEBfnoiwh0ggFrK/s400/GCB.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Guan Chong Bhd 長期以來業績不是很理想,ROE並不高。<br />
<br />
但2016年後就出現顯著成長。<br />
<br />
但實際上,Revenue 真正成長的只是2019年,如下:<br />
<br />
<b>Revenue<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2016 2315.87</b><br />
<b>2017 2147.91</b><br />
<b>2018 2273.42</b><br />
<b>2019 2941.63</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>EPS</b><br />
<b>2016 0.09</b><br />
<b>2017 0.1</b><br />
<b>2018 0.2</b><br />
<b>2019 0.21</b><br />
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><br />
但在當前經濟衰退的背景下,2019年業績恐怕很難保持。<br />
<br />
Guan Chong Bhd 雖然是一間收入基礎穩定的大公司,但有其缺點,就是產品屬於鬥價錢型,故只能以量來壓低成本取勝。<br />
<br />
這也是它毛利率低的原因,就算這三年業績進步,仍不能擺脫這格局。<br />
<br />
也許就是如此,它市盈率長期維持在7-12之間。<br />
<br />
未來可見估計仍不能擺脫7-12的市盈率。<br />
<br />
但無論如何,作為一家營業額有29億令吉的大企業,它還是有一定投資價值。<br />
<br />
這裡,我先假定它會受損於經濟衰退,但還是會復甦回2016-2019年水平,那就可以估算它的價值,大概介於10-1<br />
<br />
2倍市盈率。<br />
<br />
以目前2.80,12.26市盈率股價,它不是理想買入價值。<br />
<br />
所以建議還是等反彈結束,股市再次回落時,才進場。<br />
<br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><b>投资教学視頻(捐款用途)</b></span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-19634042554751769482020-07-06T23:03:00.002-07:002020-07-09T21:19:44.561-07:00FPI什麼時候可考慮投資?Formosa Prosonic Industries Bhd(FPI, 9172),从事扬声器系统的制造和销售,投资控股,系统开发和商务软件解决方案的提供。<br />
<br />
其可报告部门为马来西亚和英国,其中大部分收入来自马来西亚,其产品组合包括无线扬声器产品,传统扬声器产品,乐器产品和声学产品。<br />
<br />
它还提供服务,包括设计服务,制造服务,供应链支持和质量体系。<br />
<br />
我們先看看它過去經營效率如何?<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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從其財務數據看,FPI 是2017年才業績大躍進,ROE從個位數升到兩位數。<br />
<br />
我們再看它存貨,收賬和付賬週轉天數,都出現了進步。<br />
<br />
FPI 基本沒有什麼長期債務<br />
<br />
下面是 FPI 的 Revenue 和 Net Income 這幾年數據,這幾年都取得可觀成長。<br />
<br />
<b>Revenue<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2016 340.61</b><br />
<b>2017 461.18<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2018 560.52<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2019 766.20</b><br />
<br />
<b>Net Income<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2016 13.54</b><br />
<b>2017 41.17<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2018 36.64<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2019 41.75</b><br />
<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><br />
但是,在沒有大派股息下,Equity 成長卻少的多,內生成長率慢的多。<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Total Equity<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2016 251.90</b><br />
<b>2017 275.89<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2018 293.14<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2019 309.97</b><br />
<br />
根據最新季報,作為非必須消費品生產商的 FPI ,業績開始下滑,估計第二季在新冠疫情肆虐下也不會好。<br />
<br />
根據過去10年 FPI 市盈率,最低4.74,業績大進步時期也是在10-12倍之間,目前是8.9倍。<br />
<br />
雖然 FPI 這幾年業績大進步,但它本身產品並沒有太多值得自消費者多支付溢價之處,故利潤率低。<br />
<br />
這意味它對抗衰退的空間不多。<br />
<br />
所以要買這支股票,市盈率跌到6倍以下時,才可以考慮。<br />
<br />
<br />
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<div style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><b style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html">https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/<wbr></wbr>2018/02/adibooks-series.html</a></span></b></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">購買請mail: <span style="color: red;">kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com</span></span></b></div>
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<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-34191223961264965832020-07-05T22:59:00.003-07:002020-07-05T22:59:31.674-07:00Success Transformer還能繼續Success?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Success Transformer Corp Bhd(7207),从事电气设备,工业照明以及过程设备的设计,制造和分销。该公司生产电力变压器和电气产品,例如自动稳压器,失谐的谐波电路滤波电抗器,电池充电器和测试仪。其产品组合包括工业照明产品的LED系列,例如泛光灯,路灯,高架灯和HID照明。它分为两个部分,变压器和照明部分以及过程设备部分。<br />
<br />
在大馬工業股中,Success 是表現算優秀的,從它過去在二板時就如此。<br />
<br />
以下是 Success 的財務數據。<br />
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真正造成 Success 業績下滑是2018年開始,ROE和ROA都出現顯著下跌。<br />
<br />
到底問題出在那裡?<br />
<br />
從數據提供的存貨、應收帳和應付賬週轉天書看,並不是營運出現問題。<br />
<br />
但對於 Success 來說,供應商要求還款壓力應該加大,所以我們看見它還款週轉天數在減少。<br />
<br />
但是從Revenue來看,則有些變化。<br />
<br />
<b>Revenue<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2016 572.95</b><br />
<b>2017 395.48</b><br />
<b>2018 326.14</b><br />
<b>2019 324.79</b><br />
<br />
<br />
2017年後Revenue,2018年也如此,這會不會部分和2018年 Property/Plant/Equipment 項目中減少184.58有部分關係。<br />
<br />
但是根據現金流量表,並沒有大筆資產出售的金額,所以這資產減少原因是什麼?<br />
<br />
但無論原因如何, Success 資產負債表縮小,以及淨利潤減少是客觀事實。<br />
<br />
<b>Net Income</b><br />
<b>2016 35.61</b><br />
<b>2017 46.07</b><br />
<b>2018 7.16</b><br />
<b>2019 15.27</b><br />
<br />
<br />
作為一個散戶,我不可能都知道所有股票的課題變化,所以多數情況都是根據經濟週期和財務數據來觀察公司變化。<br />
<br />
如果你是長期追蹤 Success,可許可以告訴我為何資產負債表會萎縮,以及 Revenue 減少的原因。<br />
<br />
一般情況下,Revenue 減少要麼是市場被侵蝕,或者是大環境改變又或者是競爭對手因素。<br />
<br />
又可能是出售某些業務,使得 Revenue 減少,但問題是 Success 的利潤率並沒有增加反而減少,這就有問題。<br />
<br />
到底真相是什麼?<br />
<br />
有長期追蹤 Success 的人也許知道,我撰寫此文不是要做深入報告,所以沒有花時間和精力去研究。<br />
<br />
但無論如何,我們看看 Success 的過去 Price/Earnings 和 Price/Book。<br />
<br />
Success 過去來說,是表現不錯的工業股,但市場對的評價不高。<br />
<br />
Price/Earnings 在2010-2014年之間,平均約5倍;<br />
<br />
201年以後除2017年7倍外,最高14倍,目前12倍。<br />
<br />
顯然 Success 價值是2015年後才被發現。<br />
<br />
但工業股最好以 Price/Book 為準。<br />
<br />
其Price/Book如下:<br />
<br />
<b>2010 1.01</b><br />
<b>2011 0.72</b><br />
<b>2012 0.61</b><br />
<b>2013 0.78</b><br />
<b>2014 0.82</b><br />
<b>2015 1.05</b><br />
<b>2016 0.84</b><br />
<b>2017 0.90</b><br />
<b>2018 0.39</b><br />
<b>2019 0.71</b><br />
<b>Current<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 0.43</b><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"><b> </b> </span><br />
<br />
Success 最好時期, Price/Book 也很少超過1倍。<br />
<br />
可見它不是很被市場重視。<br />
<br />
以現在0.43水平,看似便宜。<br />
<br />
雖然 Success 規模在縮小,但現金流量還是很不錯。<br />
<br />
你需要搞明白為何它規模縮小的原因,若未來趨勢不變,再便宜也不要買。<br />
<br />
若能穩定下來,甚至回升,則有投資價值。<br />
<br />
不過問題在於買進時機。<br />
<br />
<br />
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<br />阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-36218224758071506912020-07-03T01:15:00.002-07:002020-07-03T01:16:02.893-07:00Complete Logistic Services Bhd:海運股何時再揚帆?今天我說一直海運股票 Complete Logistic Services Bhd(5136)。<br />
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Complete Logistic Services Bhd 从事提供整体物流服务,船东,提供海上运输服务和一般贸易。<br />
<br />
物流服务包括航运和陆运的整合。公司的经营部门为物流部门和海运部门。物流业务包括集装箱运输,货车运输,仓储,海关经纪和转运服务以及货运贸易等服务。<br />
<br />
海运部分包括用于一般杂货的海上运输服务和需要总物流的项目货物。该公司大部分收入来自物流部门。<br />
<br />
這類公司屬於景氣循環股票。<br />
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所以我們看它下面財務數據,都是幾年好,幾年差,如此循環。<br />
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<br />
海運是屬於固定成本非常高的行業。<br />
<br />
如果沒有生意,船隻停泊在碼頭也需要收費,故以長期投資來看,這行業不是一個好投資。<br />
<br />
海運興衰取決於國際貿易。<br />
<br />
國際貿易需求好,BDI 指數就會上升,所以投資這種股票,需要配合 BDI 指數一起觀察。<br />
<br />
但是這行業同致性太高,沒有什麼特別的競爭優勢,只能靠管理維持經營利潤率,所以對管理層能力要求會比較高。<br />
<br />
因為同致性太高,毛利率也偏低。<br />
<br />
目前國際貿易因為 COVID-19 而出現激烈倒退,所以海運股票也狂跌。<br />
<br />
這們可以觀察 Complete Logistic Services Bhd 的歷年 Price/Book,目前是歷史最低,只有0.52倍。<br />
<br />
如下:<br />
<br />
<b>2010 0.52<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2011 0.53</b><br />
<b>2012 0.56<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2013 0.82</b><br />
<b>2014 0.76<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2015 0.89<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2016 0.65<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2017 0.64<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2018 0.59<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>2019 0.62<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span></b><br />
<b>Current 0.52</b><br />
<br />
如果以逆向投資來看,這時候的確是入場的時機。<br />
<br />
但我不認為現在是最低部,因為經濟衰退可能會有呆帳增加造成的第二波衰退。<br />
<br />
如果是在早前兩個月,股市暴跌時,你投入部分資金,或許還有道理,現在股市大漲下,絕對不是進場的好時機。<br />
<br />
海運業復甦有五個挑戰:<br />
<br />
第一是美國疫情惡化;<br />
<br />
第二不排出有第二波疫情;<br />
<br />
第三是銀行呆帳增加引發二次衰退;<br />
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最後一個是一帶一路會吃掉部分海運市場;<br />
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第五是逆全球化,雖然會發生,但我認為不會倒退到彼此隔離。<br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-66405205233967742052020-06-29T03:13:00.000-07:002020-06-29T03:13:11.990-07:00KKB股價不安全KKB Engineering Bhd (KKB,9466) 从事钢结构制造,民用建筑,热浸镀锌和液化石油气(LPG)气瓶的制造。它分为两个部分,工程和建筑部门包括土木工程和建筑,钢铁制造和热浸镀锌。制造部门制造液化石油气瓶,钢管和相关产品。它的大部分收入来自工程和建筑领域。<br />
<br />
我說過,不同人投資風格不一樣,我本人不怎麼喜歡投資重型工業生產和資本密集公司,KKB Engineering Bhd 的確不是我所喜歡的。<br />
<br />
但無論如何,我們先看它財務數據:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtoBCha_s_9qsrbOhNlAhOn0VWY6ERYvn8j_EA8xGzbiDxUKKHp0kuIhUOtzo3-7_o-VQTr2CB30AGNDAaJFznjJ5KosxaEZUItPs3xD0RmnmlhhMBcOTDcQKNgkEazsOjVfeRmgdCa31m/s1600/KKB.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="266" data-original-width="785" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtoBCha_s_9qsrbOhNlAhOn0VWY6ERYvn8j_EA8xGzbiDxUKKHp0kuIhUOtzo3-7_o-VQTr2CB30AGNDAaJFznjJ5KosxaEZUItPs3xD0RmnmlhhMBcOTDcQKNgkEazsOjVfeRmgdCa31m/s400/KKB.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
KKB Engineering Bhd 的ROE呈現的是典型景氣循環公司的特徵,幾年好又幾年不好。<br />
<br />
但它好景時,ROE也很少超過10%。<br />
<br />
但也不是說沒有優點。<br />
<br />
KKB Engineering Bhd 的ROA和ROE解近,這意味它並沒有過多債務槓桿,也就是債務相對比較少。<br />
<br />
因為這公司業務模式非我本來所喜歡,我也不說太多,只是簡單說,如果要買這類公司該如何做?<br />
<br />
對於資本密集的景氣循環公司,買進時機自然是經濟的谷底,其股價低於長期平均價值的時候。<br />
<br />
對於這類公司,P/E年年波動,很難判斷它的內在價值,相比之下使用 Price/Book 比較理想。<br />
<br />
以下是 KKB Engineering Bhd 的 長期 Price/Book。<br />
<br />
<b>2012 1.43</b><br />
<b>2013 2.46</b><br />
<b>2014 1.39</b><br />
<b>2015 1.38</b><br />
<b>2016 1.19</b><br />
<b>2017 0.87</b><br />
<b>2018 0.77</b><br />
<b>2019 1.21</b><br />
<b>最新 1.24</b><br />
<br />
以目前經濟來判斷, 1.24 的 Price/Book 有很大下跌空間。<br />
<br />
所以最好低於0.80後才考慮。<br />
<br />
當然,到底最後會跌到多少,我不能預測的出來。<br />
<br />
最後,就看 KKB Engineering Bhd 的技術分析看看!<br />
<br />
看日圖, KKB Engineering Bhd 反彈力道已經趨緩,成較量萎縮,各項指標都跌到負數區。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisPLgJElyXrRctnQ-Ahzephd0fbBGlkfyJR8IbnNLSkWwWCrw6EAuoVlNFeymEf5tUDl5uLbphvOuaCnkHip36yi6PDg8WlG2L_TlC6Kd-L4cdvVxR804AlX2j9bDl863u6ubJtH1yy9iz/s1600/KBB1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="1005" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisPLgJElyXrRctnQ-Ahzephd0fbBGlkfyJR8IbnNLSkWwWCrw6EAuoVlNFeymEf5tUDl5uLbphvOuaCnkHip36yi6PDg8WlG2L_TlC6Kd-L4cdvVxR804AlX2j9bDl863u6ubJtH1yy9iz/s400/KBB1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
看周圖,上升武力和下跌信號更明顯,尤其是資金流指標Chanikin Osc 已跌入負數,未來表現恐怕不樂觀。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJX8nFXEIhVFu0PNbuG7ITkTc4BvvCUgqHdlPeDl9k1hd-xgxoJUowmTCLJKYltEyOPEpSo1KE4kw5wJWcVpceGogaRc_JAjYcxK2fG_m8ZtVU5ypUx0Wgx8ecYI7NrCOQrWqbQJPdTxpX/s1600/KKB-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="535" data-original-width="1011" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJX8nFXEIhVFu0PNbuG7ITkTc4BvvCUgqHdlPeDl9k1hd-xgxoJUowmTCLJKYltEyOPEpSo1KE4kw5wJWcVpceGogaRc_JAjYcxK2fG_m8ZtVU5ypUx0Wgx8ecYI7NrCOQrWqbQJPdTxpX/s400/KKB-3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><b style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html">https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/<wbr></wbr>2018/02/adibooks-series.html</a></span></b></b><br />
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<br />阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-72875035218589495192020-06-26T01:22:00.001-07:002020-06-26T01:22:06.709-07:00MI TECHNOVATION財務解析MI TECHNOVATION (MI, 5286),前身为Mi Equipment Holdings Bhd,是一家马来西亚公司,从事具有测试功能的晶圆级芯片级封装(WLCSP)分选机的设计,开发和制造。该公司的产品包括WLCSP芯片分选机,晶圆对晶圆分选机和WLCSP后锯最终测试机。它向半导体行业提供产品。本公司还提供维修服务,技术支持和其他售后服务。<br />
<br />
本人對半導體認識有限,所以無法對 MI TECHNOVATION 競爭和營運做一個深度分析。<br />
<br />
但是它的財務數據還是可以讓我們了解它。<br />
<br />
MI TECHNOVATION 財務如下:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcsj_IAmrZoWYlyJ9Dl88uf8wFdeMUST9rhSftmZdAXkM_ho4zReNG_IItXN3qEeeNSiuWA7K_EDNtHvPwFUJL5TTwR0w7jdcaSK-1RxjhG_EOl2nvZzpk5q0SGtvNHA697pZTaCW6SMGB/s1600/data.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="460" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcsj_IAmrZoWYlyJ9Dl88uf8wFdeMUST9rhSftmZdAXkM_ho4zReNG_IItXN3qEeeNSiuWA7K_EDNtHvPwFUJL5TTwR0w7jdcaSK-1RxjhG_EOl2nvZzpk5q0SGtvNHA697pZTaCW6SMGB/s400/data.jpg" width="391" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
用著名的ROE看,MI TECHNOVATION 是合格的。<br />
<br />
加上高 Revenue 和 Net Income 成長,似乎是完美。<br />
<br />
但仔細看 EPS ,成長率則少很多,特別和2017年對比卻是退步。<br />
<br />
原因就在於 Diluted Weighted Average Shares,從365.57增加到748.07,稀釋了股東權益。<br />
<br />
公司為了發展,通過供股融資是可以的,但是我對年年供股的股票都有點卻步,這對股東權益不是好事。<br />
<br />
如果公司前景真的俱佳,對供股還可以忍受,MI TECHNOVATION 符合此條件嗎?<br />
<br />
要看前景,就必須對公司營運環境和未來發展要有一個分析。<br />
<br />
正如前述,我不了解半島體行業,但還是可以通過財務數據看出一點信號。<br />
<br />
我們看 MI TECHNOVATION 的現金流量表,因為投資資本大,所以都是負自由現金流。<br />
<br />
發展初期負自由現金流我可以接受,但我不能接受低於 Net Income 的 Operating Cash。<br />
<br />
Operating Cash 不理想的高成長率,是不可信的。<br />
<br />
這是我的看法。<br />
<div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><b style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html">https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/<wbr></wbr>2018/02/adibooks-series.html</a></span></b></b><br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>投资教学視頻(捐款用途)</b></span></div>
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<br />阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-20612849516397124142020-06-23T23:58:00.004-07:002020-06-23T23:58:48.430-07:00高成長高ROE就是好股嗎?說MTAG<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmx5dfWP-F5o2lq4nkQ2FcA4omgYSpe_NHRn6LMt972YIw7wglOw45vsbxRt0HEHIUAWbbSwcKHZv_ltojv0u3AolDqg_1aUbNBut2XDpSe22uZAtW6p3rJU7o7mzObsp3ivMpxKbW67M6/s1600/intag_product_04-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="615" data-original-width="853" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmx5dfWP-F5o2lq4nkQ2FcA4omgYSpe_NHRn6LMt972YIw7wglOw45vsbxRt0HEHIUAWbbSwcKHZv_ltojv0u3AolDqg_1aUbNBut2XDpSe22uZAtW6p3rJU7o7mzObsp3ivMpxKbW67M6/s320/intag_product_04-2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Mtag Group Berhad (MTAG),今天我分析這支股票。<br />
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根據下面其業務介紹,它是從事印刷相關業務。<br />
<br />
公司介紹如下,各位自行翻譯。<br />
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MTAG Group Berhad, an investment holding company, engages in the business of label and sticker printing, and<br />
<br />
customised converting services for various materials. The company was established in 1995 in Johor, Malaysia.<br />
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The subsidiaries of MTAG Group include Toyo Sho Industrial Products Sdn Bhd, Intag Industrial Supplies Sdn Bhd,<br />
<br />
and Intag Steel Hardware Sdn Bhd.<br />
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除了草創的公司未來難易預測外,成立超過一段年份的公司,好不好都必須以其財務數據為基礎。<br />
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MTAG 財務如下:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAU4VIqZB3u95B38mbvco2_WQX1dD8SdeOkT6uSgqJkl_eAWnd5GrA3ToyUUw394g_6iJPoQdR2jItOLvNjtsoKI92Jh3_QsOdzuW4Z83vHFoHsUY2CWGejrdZBVE9fkkcRwie8oMVpRom/s1600/data.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="289" data-original-width="475" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAU4VIqZB3u95B38mbvco2_WQX1dD8SdeOkT6uSgqJkl_eAWnd5GrA3ToyUUw394g_6iJPoQdR2jItOLvNjtsoKI92Jh3_QsOdzuW4Z83vHFoHsUY2CWGejrdZBVE9fkkcRwie8oMVpRom/s400/data.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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這裡,我用我的《阿弟投資系列》著作,來簡單看出這些數字的意思。</div>
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<b>1)总收入出現不錯增長,每股盈利也如此,雖然2019年淨利潤出現下滑。</b></div>
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<b>2)高ROE,总权益增長速度遠大於总收入。如此高ROE只有非常非常輕硬體資產的公司才可以做到。</b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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高成長,高ROE,似乎構成一切要素,那是否值得投資?</div>
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按照我在《阿弟投資系列》說的選股法則,答案是這股表現並不完美。</div>
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它只能做二線考慮,不作為一線考慮。</div>
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原因如下:</div>
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雖然 MTAG 這幾年成長速度不錯,但不大可能維持。</div>
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我們看 MTAG 投资活动的现金,資本投資並不多,這意味未來成長空間也是有限。</div>
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另外,它的净收入現金量並不充足,這點對比经营活动的现金就可以知道。</div>
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以上分析,是建立在財務數據的數量,不是質量分析所得。</div>
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財務分析若不能滿足條件,除非特別因素,我是不看質量的,因為質量會反應在數量上。</div>
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<br />
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><b style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html">https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/<wbr></wbr>2018/02/adibooks-series.html</a></span></b></b><br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>投资教学視頻(捐款用途)</b></span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-5227857023869495192020-06-21T20:27:00.003-07:002020-06-21T20:27:41.002-07:00DSONIC的投資價值德达飞讯 (DSONIC,5216) ,這間公司的業務,網上抄錄如下:<br />
<br />
DSONIC 提供了ICT解决方案,包括智能卡个性化(例如安全ID或基于芯片的信用卡/借记卡/银行卡),软件和硬件解决方案的定制,项目管理,咨询,研发和技术咨询服务。<br />
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<br />
<b>公司主要业务:</b><br />
<b>1. 定制的智能卡解决方案 Customised Smart Card Solutions "CSCS"</b><br />
这业务是公司主要的贡献,专注于大规模定制的软件和硬件系统,用于安全识别的项目管理以及其他解决方案服务。公司在这方面主要的都是依赖和政府的好关系而拿到订单。<br />
DSONIC 作为获得VISA,MASTERCARD和PAYNET批准的公司之一,也为基于芯片的信用卡,借记卡和银行卡提供智能卡个性化服务。<br />
<br />
<b>2. 制造业</b><br />
DSONIC 也制造智能卡(身份证 -IC) 和护照(Passport)。<br />
在马来西亚政府领域拥有十多年的经验,Datasonic将智能卡,护照,生物识别技术,激光雕刻,公钥基础设施(PKI)和其他关键技术转变为针对欺诈和伪造的卓越强大防线。迄今为止,Datasonic已交付了超过2500万个MyKad和Malaysia Passport。<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>公司主要客户:</b><br />
<b>1. Government 政府</b><br />
如今,马来西亚国家注册局(NRD)使用DSONIC的集中式和分布式打印与发行系统和解决方案来管理和发行高度安全的国民身份证 (MyKad)和 护照 。<br />
不仅如此,DSONIC 也提供大型ICT软件解决方案以及集成的安全和监视系统解决方案给各种政府机构和市政机构。<br />
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<b><br /></b>
<b>2.Private Sectors 私人机构</b><br />
DSONIC 帮助马来西亚的主要银行在此个性化中心管理和发行个性化EMV信用卡,借记卡和ATM卡。 它们高度安全的卡交付和履行系统为银行提供了一对一营销,降低成本和提高效率的强大解决方案。<br />
DSONIC因严格遵守信用卡发行的安全标准而获得Visa国际组织和Master International的认证, 所以也被几个银行选中它的服务。<br />
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以上是從網上抄錄關於 DSONIC 的介紹。<br />
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每個人投資風格不同,我風格是不會投資DSONIC 。<br />
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原因1:作為 B to B 的公司,DSONIC 並不是掌握了什麼獨有的技術,如ASML在半導體那樣。因為它不處於關鍵槓桿的行業價值鏈,這種公司未來不確定性很高,缺乏強大的競爭優勢。<br />
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原因2:依賴少數公司。一間公司若過度集中在少數客戶,就沒有議價能力,處於弱勢地位,而且非常弱勢。<br />
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原因3:依賴政府。在大馬,要取得政府合約需要什麼關係,各位都知道。本人不懂政府裡面的風雲變化,各派勢力起落,所以我沒有能力預測他未來合約會否持續以及會否得到更多合約。<br />
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<b><br /></b>
<b>總結:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>不管 DSONIC 財務數據多好看,但它在產業價值鏈處於不利位置,我都會選擇放棄。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>和另外一個政治股 MYEG 比起來,MYEG 是面對群眾,雖然是政治股,可當群眾習慣使用了 MYEG,就算改朝換代,也一時間不能取銷它的服務,反而 DSONIC 只是單純 B to B,又沒有技術優勢,隨時可以合約到期而終止合作。</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; text-align: -webkit-center;">
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><b style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html">https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/<wbr></wbr>2018/02/adibooks-series.html</a></span></b></b><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><br /></span></b><b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">購買請mail: <span style="color: red;">kongfaw.choo358@gmail.com</span></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><b>投资教学視頻(捐款用途)</b></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="font-family: 'Times New Roman';">
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<br />阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-74078562555782075282020-06-17T20:45:00.002-07:002020-06-21T20:28:35.502-07:00CCK年複15%成長率可持續嗎?今天我說說 CCK Consolidated Holdings Bhd(CCK, 7035)這支股票。<br />
<br />
CCK 的業務是从事零售和家禽养殖,主要是:家禽部分;大虾部分,食品服务部分,零售部分和公司部分(Poultry Segment; Prawn Segment, Food Service Segment, Retail Segment, and Corporate Segment)。家禽部门参与家禽产品的饲养和生产。<br />
<br />
大虾分部从事对虾和海鲜产品的饲养和生产。食品服务分部从事食品及相关服务的供应和交易。零售部门涉及冷藏产品的贸易。<br />
<br />
CCK 的業務不複雜,它的產品並沒有什麼特別的競爭優勢,所以這類公司就需要靠管理控制經營成本。<br />
<br />
我們先看 CCK 的經營效率指標。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiVpfK0825sg5kA8bHYkk7kwgycfcmqzB7EkXocmG9O0tNec2zaSdTG71Mh2KNPYhtWwzp26VFYwsq9MsalY-ypu-i_5Ld5gp0g8xeOUc3OoCsem6ypd3WMd5Y-92ahjwMwnAb80Bb9qRP/s1600/CCK01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="292" data-original-width="789" height="147" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiVpfK0825sg5kA8bHYkk7kwgycfcmqzB7EkXocmG9O0tNec2zaSdTG71Mh2KNPYhtWwzp26VFYwsq9MsalY-ypu-i_5Ld5gp0g8xeOUc3OoCsem6ypd3WMd5Y-92ahjwMwnAb80Bb9qRP/s400/CCK01.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
CCK 的 ROE 和 ROA 並不十分強勁,但以它所從事的行業,它的表現可以上是中上水平。<br />
<br />
因為我選股都是選現在和未來 ROE 和 ROA 高的公司,所以 CCK 的確我不大可能會買。<br />
<br />
可 CCK 其實不是爛公司,它只是沒那麼優秀而已,雖然在它同行裡面它算不錯,可比不上QL。<br />
<br />
正如前述,這種公司產品沒有差異化,所以主要靠成本管理。<br />
<br />
我們可以看到它各種利潤率都在增加,這使得 Net Margin 從2013年算起,至今增加了1倍。<br />
<br />
這使得 CCK 雖然營業額沒有增加太多,可EPS卻增加了1倍,年複成長率15%,如下所示:<br />
<br />
<b>營業額</b><br />
2015 0.49<br />
2016 0.56<br />
2017 0.62<br />
2018 0.64<br />
2019 0.65<br />
<br />
<b>EPS</b><br />
2015 0.02<br />
2016 0.03<br />
2017 0.05<br />
2018 0.04<br />
2019 0.05<br />
<br />
<br />
可畢竟 CCK 營業額增長穩定,但幅度不大,所以長期來看,除非你在它股價特別低的時候入場,否則不會有過多股價漲幅。<br />
<br />
因為 CCK 從事的業務本來就是利潤不高,它淨利潤率從2.59%增加到5.09%可以,但增加到10%則非常困難。<br />
<br />
因此,我們不該指望它可以繼續通過再縮減成本來大幅度推高EPS。<br />
<br />
下來,我們看 CCK 的技術圖表(日圖)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSHWOBrrT374DnPIkn3qsohm1w7SsWjktvR930GlLX2-IbmN8v_LHBT3FVp5MVRD-Tv8UYxkWbaD9YaW0-0RzJvbDrN4HaGdUB_9tA7lGmZ-sRluLxV_JHZSd5avvbUHJKXuF9MTXp77pb/s1600/CCK02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="566" data-original-width="1033" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSHWOBrrT374DnPIkn3qsohm1w7SsWjktvR930GlLX2-IbmN8v_LHBT3FVp5MVRD-Tv8UYxkWbaD9YaW0-0RzJvbDrN4HaGdUB_9tA7lGmZ-sRluLxV_JHZSd5avvbUHJKXuF9MTXp77pb/s400/CCK02.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
圖表顯示 CCK 從上一次全球股市崩跌中反彈,不過已經出現股價升勢無力的跡象,股價盤整,MACD緩慢下滑中。<br />
<br />
我們再看周圖。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJHCXRV6KMYyheIH_7GWsp1KQeyxW24zL7me6I-OJxmrr15NuyU7p_AVmEPiwN8yTn8Fs5Ftc5ip9VCiTzaqpQdoRkDlA5xQ_I28_SeDEemhySAr4FTTfIxMOywIs59_9HjDLLHBp-C9j8/s1600/CCK03.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="1004" height="206" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJHCXRV6KMYyheIH_7GWsp1KQeyxW24zL7me6I-OJxmrr15NuyU7p_AVmEPiwN8yTn8Fs5Ftc5ip9VCiTzaqpQdoRkDlA5xQ_I28_SeDEemhySAr4FTTfIxMOywIs59_9HjDLLHBp-C9j8/s400/CCK03.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
周圖顯示 CCK 股價從0.90水平下跌以來,在0.50-0.60之間盤整已經有兩年,期間只出現一次三月全球股災崩盤一次,但之後又回到過去兩年盤整水平。<br />
<br />
但是STOCH RSI卻出現了死亡交叉,不過還是在超買區,所以下跌跡象並不強烈。<br />
<br />
但如果股價跌破0.47,可視為多空交戰分出勝負,應該賣出。<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>結論:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>CCK 過去五年2015-2019的市盈率(Price/Earnings),分別是15.18、15.23、13.55、31.47、12.80,現在則是9.56。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>這可以視為低估嗎?</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>答案是不可以。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>過去5年市盈率平均12-15倍,是 CCK 減少成本使得EPS增加一倍的背景,而這背景不大可能重演,更何況還有全球經濟</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>衰退的威脅。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>所以 CCK 市盈率跌到9.56,是有合理性的。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>若跌破0.47,市盈率可能會在未來一年內跌到7倍的水平。</b><br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-64740109304528385982020-06-17T19:59:00.003-07:002020-06-17T19:59:48.412-07:00MBSB最佳進場時機這次,我分析 Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB, 1171)。<br />
<br />
根據資料,MBSB 業務是分为四个主要部分:融资业务,该贷款为永久业权和租赁物业的担保提供贷款,并提供零售融资和相关服务;房地产开发业务,开发住宅和商业物业;<br />
<br />
房地产业务,租赁房地产;<br />
<br />
除了零售和其他相关业务外,该公司还租赁办公楼,以及一家酒店运营公司,其租赁酒店房间。<br />
<br />
该公司还经营项目管理和投资控股业务。<br />
<br />
它的总收入大部分来自融资业务,并且仅在马来西亚开展业务。<br />
<br />
簡單來說,這是一家金融公司。<br />
<br />
根據目前經濟週期,因為利率太低,金融業成長空間受到壓縮,所以我不投資金融公司。<br />
<br />
所以我不看個別公司的基本面,對於金融公司我一概不投資,除非利率回升到相當高點才考慮。<br />
<br />
這是以經濟週期觀點看,是超長期投資觀點,中短期不在考慮。<br />
<br />
可既然都說要分析個股,我們還是順便看一看這家公司的基本面。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg46YyVjnN4sjQxszMbGlxwrXPmPJxiC7TVdimtrkX3YE7evawvktUOFx57Gtc090GennJ2_j1aHia5R2014G5OeBoJ3vPdZLZa_x3kqtWQHcDb7ZXfPagvlamleqNi75Adp3tFtnzx4NNq/s1600/MBSB01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="235" data-original-width="754" height="123" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg46YyVjnN4sjQxszMbGlxwrXPmPJxiC7TVdimtrkX3YE7evawvktUOFx57Gtc090GennJ2_j1aHia5R2014G5OeBoJ3vPdZLZa_x3kqtWQHcDb7ZXfPagvlamleqNi75Adp3tFtnzx4NNq/s400/MBSB01.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
以金融銀行的標準,ROA 超過1%可以界定為利潤收益良好。<br />
<br />
但是 MBSB 雖然 ROA 超過1%,卻沒有那麼好。<br />
<br />
這是因為它的 ROE 從2015年開始下滑,低過15%,所以雖然 ROA 超過1%,仍不可視為是好的收益表現。<br />
<br />
根據 MBSB 業務介紹,它有從事非金融的房地产业务,租赁房地产和酒店运营,這應該是它 ROA 超過1%的原因。<br />
<br />
它主要信貸業務和房地产开发關係度高,2015年是大馬房地產開始下滑的一年,這也能解釋為何它的高 ROE 沒有了!<br />
<br />
<b>這種公司,投資需要根據利率和房地產週期。</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>最好的投資時機,就是利率高和房地產跌入最谷底的時候。</b><br />
<div>
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b></span><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue; line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-84109021714458712212020-06-15T00:15:00.001-07:002020-06-15T18:42:45.141-07:00Careplus 還能上漲嗎?我很少分析個別股票,久不分享個股分析文章,今天就分析 Careplus(0163)這支股票。<br />
<br />
關於 Careplus 的業務,網上是這麼說的。<br />
<br />
懶得翻譯,各位自己看。<br />
<br />
<span style="color: blue;">Careplus Group Bhd is involved in the manufacturing, processing, and trading of gloves. The company's product consists of Latex exam gloves, Latex surgical gloves and Nitrile exam gloves. Its Latex exam gloves are used in the medical examinations and procedures, diagnostic procedures by the dentist, laboratory practices and for food handling practices. The Nitrile exam gloves are generally used in laboratory practices and the automotive industry. Geographically, it has operations in Central, North and South America, Malaysia, and the other Asia Pacific regions. It generates a vast majority of revenues from Central and South America.</span><br />
<br />
Careplus 的業務,顯然和手套有關。<br />
<br />
新冠瘟疫期間,手套股成為受益者,Careplus 也因此獲利,所以股價大幅度成長。<br />
<br />
可 Careplus 的業績到底如何?<br />
<br />
我先聲明,各人投資風格不同,所以我是依據我風格來分析。<br />
<br />
下面是 Careplus 的財務數據。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgjaCLIG1tAiFJnQdHDJNQIwiaIw-iI9PV5Kl-kwjQXO340EdHlWaQc4LoF-W95yPsEzlVm4BMwP-ZiKS8_8tQ3NOPIWhmegNwpSKLhyphenhyphenFHZPWWU6tttFOdzaAWfEHnARRzVLiYbB3ZiGZk/s1600/care01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="787" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgjaCLIG1tAiFJnQdHDJNQIwiaIw-iI9PV5Kl-kwjQXO340EdHlWaQc4LoF-W95yPsEzlVm4BMwP-ZiKS8_8tQ3NOPIWhmegNwpSKLhyphenhyphenFHZPWWU6tttFOdzaAWfEHnARRzVLiYbB3ZiGZk/s400/care01.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
這數據實在太難看了!<br />
<br />
這些數據分析法,可以閱讀我寫的《阿弟投資系列》。<br />
<br />
面對這種公司,我一看到這樣的數據,馬上就扔一邊,其餘都不看了!<br />
<br />
當然,因為出現百年一次的大瘟疫,所以出現特殊情況。<br />
<br />
如果按照投機標準,當然可以暫時持有 Careplus。<br />
<br />
一般上,遇到這種大行情吹起的大風,業績差的 Careplus,股價表現往往好過其同行的龍頭股票。<br />
<br />
所以我們再看 Careplus 的技術分析。<br />
<br />
如下面日圖:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitqAkIAjRXtMifynamiiMu_6FVKwHZ9Y2rwZIKjlDMvE4_7ffdR4L3xNxM1UL0gWTgDoFpvyBi5EJfoGExnKZpL1lLBr9m4NLdGXijtWFwMIrfAEioTRoNNdMat7o5mhy738vSKkHR5dk6/s1600/care02.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="559" data-original-width="1008" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitqAkIAjRXtMifynamiiMu_6FVKwHZ9Y2rwZIKjlDMvE4_7ffdR4L3xNxM1UL0gWTgDoFpvyBi5EJfoGExnKZpL1lLBr9m4NLdGXijtWFwMIrfAEioTRoNNdMat7o5mhy738vSKkHR5dk6/s400/care02.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
從圖表看,Careplus 漲勢似乎面臨終結了。<br />
<br />
MACD出現死亡交叉,周圖的 Stochastic 也出現死亡交叉。<br />
<br />
特別我們注意,當 Careplus 漲到最高時,成交量大幅度增加。<br />
<br />
這是高位出貨的信號,所以下來的大跌是可預期的。<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>結語:</b></span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;">如果沒有第二波疫情,那手套股價格回落到正常水平是可預期的。</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;">除非有第二波則另當別論。</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;">當然最好不要有第二波。</span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; text-align: -webkit-center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-60414943985799947322020-05-13T00:45:00.001-07:002020-06-16T02:27:00.324-07:00投資騙術法則<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1iAMCGMpBlh0yVIo0nMC1DoFQqRJUPIKHQMIKzPhlwoH5IQPQPqEBi8bMgE9GTZ5FWuIGIX4bccmX_wwo3jM89duQRCEAx-ZnaCO_mF4u-Pth245kQgo2knFHyTdF0Qrn1Sz7kH0KwC-z/s1600/unnamed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="512" height="345" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1iAMCGMpBlh0yVIo0nMC1DoFQqRJUPIKHQMIKzPhlwoH5IQPQPqEBi8bMgE9GTZ5FWuIGIX4bccmX_wwo3jM89duQRCEAx-ZnaCO_mF4u-Pth245kQgo2knFHyTdF0Qrn1Sz7kH0KwC-z/s400/unnamed.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
《狼來了》的故事正面解釋是告誡我們不能說謊,因為會受你騙的人都是相信你的人,一旦他們知道你欺騙他們,以後就不會再相信你。無誠信的人,是很難在社會上立足的。但負面解釋就是「同樣的謊言不要重複說,需要變化花樣,才能繼續騙下去。」<br />
<br />
解救普通人的JJPTR現在成為坑殺普通人。任何明眼的人一看就知道它其實是一個「金字塔騙局」,為何還是會有這麼多上當呢?<br />
<br />
從歷史看,「金字塔騙局」都有相同的特徵,不管花樣怎麼變,仍萬變不離其宗。<br />
<br />
(一)承諾高額的回報,而且都脫離現實。就實際上一個「計劃」、「項目」、「產品」未來能否賺錢都是未知數,根本就不可能有穩賺這回事。就算賺錢,也不能高到脫離現實,如JJPTR承諾每月20%回報,諸如此類。著名的投資大師彼得.林區說如果一間公司的業績增長每年超過50%,幾乎都沒好下場(灌水成分多)。因此這些「金字塔騙局」的超額回報,都是空中閣樓,虛幻不實。<br />
<br />
(二)這些「計劃」、「項目」、「產品」本身沒有獲得利潤的能力,或者根本不可能獲得正常平均的利潤率。只是通過嘴砲吹噓,讓人感覺上它看起來很美,現在不參與會後悔終生。這些吹噓方法都會以某某會員的「輕鬆成功」為案例,配合名車、鈔票、美酒、美人、旅遊以及可以等著錢送上門的悠閒生活想像,以挑起人的好高騖遠和貪慾為目的。因為只要一起貪念,腦就不清醒。腦不清醒下,就算騙局再怎麼爛,破綻再怎麼多,當事者都不會清醒的。<br />
<br />
(三)業務並不是以實業生產為根本,而是要靠不斷推薦好友、發展下線來賺錢。一旦新進的資金無法支付早期進入者的回報,整個騙局就會崩潰。<br />
<br />
雖然「金字塔騙局」花樣百出,但是核心策略都相同,為何還是這麼多人重複上當呢?這不是比《狼來了》的農夫更愚昧嗎?<br />
<br />
正如《狼來了》的告誡,「同樣的謊言不要重覆說」。所以在外表上要用不同的「計劃」、「項目」、「產品」來包裝。例如郵票、股票、外匯、虛擬貨幣、黃金;或者是一些灌水的實業如餐廳、海藻、房產;或是一些虛無飄渺,不清不楚有距離美,高科技,艱深難懂的計劃概念。無論用什麼工具,只要能勾起人性的貪慾,你還怕沒人乖乖送錢給你嗎?<br />
<br />
橋不怕舊,最重要是受。所以JJPTR不會是最後一個,未來還是會有更多五花八門的「金字塔騙局」出現,而且還是會有人繼續上當。<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; text-align: -webkit-center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><b style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html">https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/<wbr></wbr>2018/02/adibooks-series.html</a></span></b></b><br />
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-83798388703800372092020-03-23T20:58:00.000-07:002020-04-20T20:07:06.838-07:00無限QE到了,買黃金時機到了嗎?新冠肺炎觸發了美國內在高槓桿問題,所以美國因為新冠肺炎觸發的衰退,嚴重性比其他國家來得嚴重。<br />
<br />
現在Fed投入的各種措施,基本有降息和QE,购买国债和机构的抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)、第一市场公司信贷工具(PMCCF)、第二市场公司信贷工具(SMCCF)、定期资产支持证券贷款工具(TALF),以支持流向消费者和企业的信贷流动。TALF将允许发行由学生贷款、汽车贷款、信用卡贷款、小企业管理局(SBA)担保的贷款以及某些其他资产支持的资产支持证券(ABS)、扩大货币市场共同基金流动性工具(MMLF),如将市政可变利率即期票据(VRDNs)和银行存单纳入证券范围,使信贷流向市政当局、重啟商业票据融资机制(CPFF)。<br />
<br />
這些複雜的措施,簡單說就是Fed代替商業銀行借錢給你也提供短期借貸週轉,當然借貸也包括商業銀行。<br />
<br />
所以是借錢給你不是免費印錢給你,而且有些需要抵押品。<br />
<br />
所以從結構上看,它不能解決美國內在高槓桿問題,他只是延後問題。<br />
<br />
這次Fed不像2008年金融危機一樣,會有投入資金限制,若發現不夠才逐步加碼,而是直接說是unlimit。<br />
<br />
從投入流動性的態勢和層面,Fed的紓困已經超越2008年金融危機的水平了!<br />
<br />
當初,就是投入這樣的水平,激發了黃金價格大反彈。<br />
<br />
那這次呢?<br />
<br />
從Fed宣布Unlimit QE後,黃金連續兩天行情上漲,特別是之前跌幅更大的白銀,反彈更大。<br />
<br />
那現在是否抄底金銀的時候呢?<br />
<br />
我們先看黃金現在的日線圖。<br />
<br />
從圖表上看,金價是從超賣區出現短期V型反彈態勢,所以用日圖看,上漲有一定道理。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFtJKhhnRp24_ADqqoBKMUHrrgw2to0AVu_offGHS9uo5jAiK01IJIFU1z3dYgzxNEz1RjGNGejUa1JeY2f-emhRX-eLaouGyagH5V5VJ_fdwA6VNiwssX-fZKbTnijslpQT3razkreA1/s1600/G-D.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="1175" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVFtJKhhnRp24_ADqqoBKMUHrrgw2to0AVu_offGHS9uo5jAiK01IJIFU1z3dYgzxNEz1RjGNGejUa1JeY2f-emhRX-eLaouGyagH5V5VJ_fdwA6VNiwssX-fZKbTnijslpQT3razkreA1/s400/G-D.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
但看黃金周圖,金價升穿布林中線,Stochastic快速反彈超過50中線。<br />
<br />
但是,MACD還沒出現黃金交叉。<br />
<br />
特別要注意一點,就是MACD還是處於高位置,並不是在底部,以技術看,金價就算反彈也是有限。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0PEcbXKSmfJiopoAVx-LuEKkGwWht0Vy4z30sswVfEoaS701GZHQfX7ikEHJZOmFvM2AIykuEToZ5Xa05Ka0cCotLTPiPbnT3xbcqyNU-1akIFDw6u4hEM_XsBrmNFjMudyLevG4z2TLB/s1600/G-W.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="637" data-original-width="1172" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0PEcbXKSmfJiopoAVx-LuEKkGwWht0Vy4z30sswVfEoaS701GZHQfX7ikEHJZOmFvM2AIykuEToZ5Xa05Ka0cCotLTPiPbnT3xbcqyNU-1akIFDw6u4hEM_XsBrmNFjMudyLevG4z2TLB/s400/G-W.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
同樣技術,我們對比2008年金融危機時反彈的技術走勢,下圖是2008年金價在金融危機時反彈日圖。<br />
<br />
和現在2020年日圖類似,都是從底部反彈,但差異是2008年是經過7個多月的下跌,把多頭掃光,才打下反彈的基礎,而現在才半個月不到。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhb1A2Ki8CkB45Svth9iu8BK8wula6ahxJHnnyiZ6-0OQi_T8OqRWrncxINju6NJumSAeEklIFukvV0Z2UcNF1gv_Kj3DOcAmRcSn6g5rpYPL6ol4_hDa_rSjybywdjUdpTX24kNFRx1z_/s1600/G-D2008.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="1173" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhb1A2Ki8CkB45Svth9iu8BK8wula6ahxJHnnyiZ6-0OQi_T8OqRWrncxINju6NJumSAeEklIFukvV0Z2UcNF1gv_Kj3DOcAmRcSn6g5rpYPL6ol4_hDa_rSjybywdjUdpTX24kNFRx1z_/s400/G-D2008.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
2008年金價周圖,MACD是從低部出現黃金交叉才反彈的,當然,也是因為當時金價下跌了30%。<br />
<br />
相比現在,金價最高一度才跌了13%,所以現在黃金周線圖之所以仍顯示價格在高位,源於此。<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnWxkO3386p1b6WoDfi97fY-wak4ZFv2n38NOde1_myI4UGAZv3hpmNHgZ8UDWrUq6IDgoUsDb0suJuq70X6uOIwJ0guF1tYKzJ5WtEJgl9Pvk411vRda3ZG0cpfFNG2yASQpYXRISLPJ3/s1600/G-W2008.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="646" data-original-width="1179" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnWxkO3386p1b6WoDfi97fY-wak4ZFv2n38NOde1_myI4UGAZv3hpmNHgZ8UDWrUq6IDgoUsDb0suJuq70X6uOIwJ0guF1tYKzJ5WtEJgl9Pvk411vRda3ZG0cpfFNG2yASQpYXRISLPJ3/s400/G-W2008.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
用CFTC 黃金投機淨頭寸看,2008年看漲黃金的頭寸,萎縮到110K,現在還有282k,仍處於高位。<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
<br />
如果考慮到黃金在這兩個時空背景下跌所需時間,以及買氣強弱,現在黃金反彈,似乎嫌太早了一點。<br />
<br />
但又考慮到現在美國政府推出政策速度比2008年快,一下讓當年應對金融危機的政策全部恢復,且更激烈。<br />
<br />
而且考慮到現在市場對美國政府政策信任度比2008年遜色,所以金價在沒有完全回調危機前的漲幅下而出現反彈,也有合理性。<br />
<br />
底部判斷,永遠有不確定性!<br />
<br />
如果你有資本雄厚,可以分多次進場,本身又有忍受一買進後回下跌30%的定力,那抄底時機對你問題不大。<br />
<br />
但缺乏以上條件的散戶,抄底時機把握,永遠是困難的事情。<br />
<br />
而這次經濟危機和2008年不同,他是COVID-19瘟疫觸發的,提供再多流動性也不能解決問題,只是舒緩痛苦而已。<br />
<br />
因為美國在防疫上太多問題,確診數據黑數太多,應對政策雜亂無章,資源不足,只要市場認為美國的COVID-19瘟疫還沒到達拐點,企業收入萎縮才是影響金融市場的根本因素。<br />
<br />
加上各各大咖對美國GDP衰退預期幅度是多麼可怕,只要未來不確定性仍在,市場價格還會下跌。<br />
<br />
市場最怕的不是壞消息,而是不確定。<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; text-align: -webkit-center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-29526306660456966132020-03-15T23:51:00.003-07:002020-03-23T19:50:31.997-07:00零利率和QE治不了瘟疫,何時股災觸底?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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早前三月初,Fed不等開會就先下調0.5%的聯邦利率,沒過多久在三月十五日就直接下調1%至0%利率,並推出高達 7000 億美元的量化寬鬆 (QE) 計畫。<br />
<br />
雖然沒有正式給這計畫命名,但依照順序這次就是QE5。<br />
<br />
印鈔機雖然開動,但股市卻不買帳。美國道瓊期貨慘遭大屠殺,應聲暴跌超過 1000 點,觸發跌停板,標普期貨暴跌 3.7% 暫報 2,555.38 ,那指期貨暴跌 4% 暫報 7,536.00。美元指數下跌近 1%。亞洲股市開盤一片血海。<br />
<br />
降息、QE之所以引發市場大跌,這是因為市場預期判斷這是對未來經濟悲觀的信號。<br />
<br />
如果經濟問題不大,何必要出動這麼激烈的貨幣政策呢?<br />
<br />
和2008年美國金融危機一樣。<br />
<br />
初期的各種刺激經濟政策,都不會推高經濟和股市。<br />
<br />
需要不斷加碼,以及市場認為雖然局勢嚴峻,但最嚴重情況已經過去,未來預期轉為正面,金融市場才會領先經濟率先反彈。<br />
<br />
黃金白銀雖然因為降息和QE而反彈2%,但因為過度槓桿化於期貨市場的因素,金銀避險的功能雖然在,但會因為價格波動波折,所以金銀漲勢不會持久,加上之前上漲過多,多頭還沒死光,故還會繼續下跌,之後會在更大的貨幣寬鬆下出現超級飆漲。<br />
<br />
和2008年金融危機時的反彈不一樣,這次反彈持久性會更長,因為這次出現的是貨幣危機。<br />
<br />
早在2019年初,我根據我對經濟週期的理解,說美國經濟衰退會在2019-2020年間出現。<br />
<br />
當然,我不知道是什麼因素會觸發經濟衰退,只是知道2019-2020年出現衰退的概率高。<br />
<br />
現在,我們都知道是瘟疫觸發了經濟衰退。<br />
<br />
因為新冠肺炎這個瘟疫造成經濟活動萎縮,所以解決問題在於克服瘟疫,這需要政府可以制定強力有效的方防疫措施,穩定人民信心。至於疫苗短期是指望不上了!<br />
<br />
但美國聯邦制度和私人醫院主導的體制,故他不能進行強力措施防疫,這點在2009年美國爆發H1N1就已經證明。<br />
<br />
只是不同的是,H1N1爆發在美國,美國很方便隱匿。<br />
<br />
但新冠肺炎,至少在檯面上,是中國先爆發,也因為西方,尤其是美國想借此瘟疫打擊中國,而大肆渲染恐慌,故當瘟疫在美國本土出現時,他想蓋也蓋不住了!<br />
<br />
貨幣政策治不了瘟疫,Fed的貨幣寬鬆救不了!<br />
<br />
美国最大八家银行表明将暂停股票回购至6月底,将节省下来的资金用于向受新冠病毒疫情影响的个人和企业发放贷款,也一樣沒有用。<br />
<br />
所以美國只有等時間自然消滅病毒。<br />
<br />
個人估計中國只要管控境外輸入成功,那清明後瘟疫在中國基本就會結束。<br />
<br />
美國需要6月後,才會慢慢結束,但經濟和股市問題卻會繼續。<br />
<br />
<br />
有一點我要強調!<br />
<br />
美國股災絕對不是單單因為一場瘟疫造成。<br />
<br />
如果只是單純瘟疫,股市不會出現如此長時間的激烈波動和下跌。<br />
<br />
背後原因是美股泡沫本來就很大,槓桿過高,瘟疫只是觸發這問題而已。<br />
<br />
最後一個問題,就是股災何時觸底?<br />
<br />
過去經驗,需要12-18個月後。<br />
<br />
但現在Fed如此急速的措施,不排除會減少這時間。<br />
<br />
所以我們需要綜合以下幾種因素觀察,如果資金足夠,可以在每一次技術圖表顯示嚴重下跌時分批買入。<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">一、觀察Fed貨幣政策力度</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: red;">二、市場情緒悲觀程度,越極端悲觀越是買進時機</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: red;">三、技術指標</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: red;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="color: red;">四、局勢變化</span></b><br />
<br />
步步驚心...走一步、看一步、想前多一步。<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; text-align: -webkit-center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-32933801714797826812020-03-04T20:13:00.001-08:002020-03-12T01:56:54.780-07:00新冠病毒蔓延美國的背後<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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首先,我們要知道一件事,新型冠狀病毒在中國發現,卻很有可能不是起源於中國。<br />
<br />
因為根據採集病毒樣本的DNA,中國只有第三代病毒,很少量的第二代(廣州發現),卻沒有美國那樣有大量的第一代、二代、三代、四代、五代。<br />
<br />
若根據病毒族譜,五代同堂的美國是病毒起源地可能性比較大。<br />
<br />
去年9月到現在,美國因為流感而死了14,000人,有人懷疑裡面含有新型冠狀病毒。<br />
<br />
其中有一些死者肺部纖維化,一度認為是抽電子煙造成,但後來調查發現二者沒關係。<br />
<br />
如果以上說法成立,在中國武漢封城,全國管制下,而且政府以很低價格,甚至金錢獎勵,鼓勵人民來檢測,在武漢甚至出動地毯式全民檢測。<br />
<br />
我們看到的結果是疫情顯著好轉,尤其湖北以來的確診病例極度少的可憐。<br />
<br />
在這種情況下,新型冠狀病毒還能全球擴散,顯然病毒起源不在中國,所以在美國是很有可能的。<br />
<br />
如果不是中國發現病毒存在,恐怕全球還是把新型冠狀病毒當流感處理,一切如常。<br />
<br />
但隨著病毒發現,本來當作流感的疾病就一個一個被發現是新型冠狀病毒了,這是表面上病毒全球擴散的原因,實際上早就存在了。<br />
<br />
這些日子我們讀新聞,知道美國確診人數低,未必是真實如此,而是檢測費用高,政府不鼓勵,檢測中心少,也需要CDC批准才能檢測。<br />
<br />
所以美國提供的確診人數絕對不可信。<br />
<br />
在以前H1N1時,美國實際患病人數是官方數據的百倍,美國也是拖到半年才宣布進入緊急狀態。<br />
<br />
這類病毒,其實就是中國說的瘟疫。<br />
<br />
中国古老历法一次次证明:瘟疫始于大雪、发于冬至、生于小寒、长于大寒、盛于立春、弱于雨水、衰于惊蜇,终于春分,止于清明(4月5日)。<br />
<br />
千百年来,发生在中国的历次瘟疫都是按这个规律始终的,中医前贤早已总结这个规律。。<br />
<br />
中国四季的划分,古代以立春、立夏、立秋、立冬为四季的开始;天文上以春分、夏至、秋分、冬至为四季的开始。 一般以3至5月为春季、6至8月为夏季、9至11月为秋季、12月到次年2月为冬季。<br />
<br />
唯各地气候不同,故四季长短不一。<br />
<br />
美国处于北纬30度到北纬50度之间,所以美国四季的划分比我国稍微长一些。<br />
<br />
春季:3月21日——6月21日<br />
<br />
夏季:6月22日——9月22日<br />
<br />
秋季:9月23日——12月21日<br />
<br />
冬季:12月22日——3月20日<br />
<br />
所以美國疫情結束,估計要在6月21日以後......<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; text-align: -webkit-center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-69514651107262528352020-02-21T20:51:00.003-08:002020-02-27T22:50:25.324-08:00黃金多空之辯随着金价升至7年来最高水平,黄金市场正吸引大量投资者入市。<br />
<br />
然而,各大投行对金市前景仍有分歧,且多头和空头都为自己找好了依据。<br />
<br />
作为多头的代表,盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管汉森(Ole Hansen)周四在一份报告中指出,尽管有其他市场的阻力,但随着多头大举加仓,目前没有什么<br />
<br />
因素可以阻止或暂停黄金涨势。<br />
<br />
汉森表示,宽松的货币政策有助于抵消美元走强和金价之间的负相关性。<br />
<br />
他补充道:“随着不利因素继续影响全球经济健康,预计各国央行将继续放松货币政策。各国央行和政府将尽一切努力,帮助经济恢复增长趋势。”<br />
<br />
以股市为例,尽管投资者情绪仍相对乐观,但汉森认为这并不一定对黄金不利。他认为,股票投资者可以转向黄金,以对冲可能出现的调整:<br />
<br />
“我们认为,进一步降息、加大刺激力度、美股实际收益率下滑以及投资者为防止股市回调而进行对冲,将继续推动投资战略多样化和避险需求。”<br />
<br />
空头的凯投宏观大宗商品分析师莱特(Alexander Kozul-Wright)卻認為,金价的上涨面临着重大的不利因素:美元走强、创纪录的股票估值和不断变化<br />
<br />
的市场情绪。<br />
<br />
尽管黄金和白银价格可能在短期内继续走高,但预计到2020年底,全球经济复苏将给贵金属价格带来压力。<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">我怎麻看呢?</span></b><br />
<br />
如果根據中短期,那就直接以技術分析來看金價。<br />
<br />
CFTC黃金投資看多頭吋,如Ole Hansen所說,的確出現多头大举加仓情況,目前看多頭吋是353.6K,創歷史新高。<br />
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<br />
<br />
但根據慣例,物極必反,多頭頭寸創新高,從來都不是未來繼續上漲的保證,反而下跌概率更大。<br />
<br />
下面是黃金價格周線圖。<br />
<br />
金價升穿布林縣上方。<br />
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<br />
從1980年以來,出現這樣情況,最後都不能持續多久,價格都會走向下跌。<br />
<br />
但以長期角度看,Ole Hansen說预计各国央行将继续放松货币政策,這點就是正確,但只是長期,中短期黃金持有者面臨損失概率比較大。<br />
<br />
助於Alexander Kozul-Wright的觀點,無論是中短期,還是長期,我認為都是不足以信。<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; margin: 0px; text-align: -webkit-center;">
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>这一套三本投资书胜过你看外面20本,因为外面的投资书是东说一点,西说一点,我是把精华整理归纳,以Step by Step方法铺陈,</b></span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">化繁為簡,</b><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">全面講解投資分析法。</b><br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細</span></span><b style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;">书</b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></div>
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-35166266583777859422020-02-20T19:34:00.002-08:002020-02-20T19:34:19.670-08:00巴菲特的繆論股神巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) 向來不喜歡比特幣,認為比特幣只對交易有用,並沒有任何實際價值,就像是貝殼一樣。<br />
<br />
他認為,投資人的資產可以通過股票、股權等方式而獲得保障,目前美元的體系也很優異。<br />
<br />
巴菲特表示寧願購買土地,因為可以通過在土地上種植某種東西來得到收穫,但是比特幣卻無法體現出區塊鏈的價值。<br />
<br />
但是,相對而言,比特幣卻並不是一個那麼好的投資,美元能夠存儲價值,比特幣的功能僅有交易,本身沒有實際的價值,所以比特幣「和貝殼沒有兩樣」。<br />
<br />
我們看看美國聯邦存款保險公司(FDIC)前主席Sheila Bair怎麼說:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc4sz0JVME8H97eorzbZ4RiLDAjomP3SUiGIaQGkx7ex0eqDVyaicBtqeQMXvHn1llXicNRIsrkVMbsuMhuXmZcTzAC34ENKUolOkpdC0g1raSRZmGYbiZ1er6EZOWmnVXRUnvu3mW8EA9/s1600/FDIC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="640" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgc4sz0JVME8H97eorzbZ4RiLDAjomP3SUiGIaQGkx7ex0eqDVyaicBtqeQMXvHn1llXicNRIsrkVMbsuMhuXmZcTzAC34ENKUolOkpdC0g1raSRZmGYbiZ1er6EZOWmnVXRUnvu3mW8EA9/s400/FDIC.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />
很明白,美元本質和比特幣這類加密貨幣一樣沒有內在價值,差別只是載體不同而已。<br />
<br />
所以巴菲特說『美元的體系也很優異』,完全站不住腳。<br />
<br />
股票、土地,當然有內在價值,但記住,這些產品內在價值計算是建立在美元等類加密貨幣的基礎上計算價格,而非計算價值。<br />
<br />
如果美元出問題,你認為還可以保持這些股票、土地的價格不變嗎?<br />
<br />
價值就算穩定,但對投資者來說,最致命的是價格變動,而不是價值。<br />
<br />
巴菲特說股票投資你可以聽,但說經濟他多是在以偏蓋全的鬼扯蛋。<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: 'times new roman'; margin: 0px; text-align: -webkit-center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>一套三本,为股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>将投资分析 STEP BY STEP 化繁為簡,全面講解投資分析法。</b></span></span><br />
<br />
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-15412882755457821912020-02-18T22:46:00.005-08:002020-02-18T22:46:50.401-08:00黃金:該上或下?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj40_jnE59yBZEMh0zIVHKyUwrHGX9A-HHwocvSYDj-Q8GYAx3ur5iDE3Seo-AWepoPAhwQXMYDfY-G3-D8r4EydmjeQ2Nrex8wdMHazjwWvCGyCPEu0DzTRYIK8BZG1FgCinJZ_7w3STNn/s1600/cftc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="294" data-original-width="606" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj40_jnE59yBZEMh0zIVHKyUwrHGX9A-HHwocvSYDj-Q8GYAx3ur5iDE3Seo-AWepoPAhwQXMYDfY-G3-D8r4EydmjeQ2Nrex8wdMHazjwWvCGyCPEu0DzTRYIK8BZG1FgCinJZ_7w3STNn/s400/cftc.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
和過去十年比起來,黃金期貨投機頭寸這麼看多,且維持這麼久(紅格子部分),是很少見的。<br />
<br />
圖中一根柱子代表一星期。<br />
<br />
目前市場積極看好黃金行情,是否可以讓金價再創新高?還是不能持續太久,回調就在眼前呢?<br />
<br />
我們看看黃金技術分析(日圖)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaU6gPpD-pgn6zEqWMj0QbMCPvCFpo5H5tjuK4EpMDXFkvYFaRmUWEjBrvZeR45aiZMQGnmgGLG1IsKSgYxue9iYXqdUR226nRj_bz0hsosyEB4lhkGPr2c7HFymRrGvgwA6rsZmjT-0lL/s1600/%2524GOLD%252Bd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="700" height="355" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaU6gPpD-pgn6zEqWMj0QbMCPvCFpo5H5tjuK4EpMDXFkvYFaRmUWEjBrvZeR45aiZMQGnmgGLG1IsKSgYxue9iYXqdUR226nRj_bz0hsosyEB4lhkGPr2c7HFymRrGvgwA6rsZmjT-0lL/s400/%2524GOLD%252Bd.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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2020年以來,金價觸及新高後,價格就下跌,之後再升上新高,不久又回調,現在又再升新高。<br />
<br />
到底這新高會繼續上升,還是又會下跌,形成『M』型下跌型態呢?<br />
<br />
我們看藍色格子框起來的同時期,MACD,KD line,CCI,和金價走勢比起來,是呈現一浪低過一浪的下滑,成交量也如此。<br />
<br />
這是一種背離現象。<br />
<br />
再看黃金技術分析(周圖)<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmp-ZE3ib0vTg23KN9px7cBR9NIy_FDlfyB4x5ySdqGkBmr1usDZkN7JFLf7YkndfSuKlaIs-g3gYRMndc652SJEQG6CWtz8ubDnwc1AG-aumZ0rXHec5DBpJuK3my8b_DIzVuCLVNtsfc/s1600/%2524GOLD.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="690" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmp-ZE3ib0vTg23KN9px7cBR9NIy_FDlfyB4x5ySdqGkBmr1usDZkN7JFLf7YkndfSuKlaIs-g3gYRMndc652SJEQG6CWtz8ubDnwc1AG-aumZ0rXHec5DBpJuK3my8b_DIzVuCLVNtsfc/s400/%2524GOLD.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />
一般上,背離現象比較少出現在週圖,除非盤整時間過長(藍色格子)。<br />
<br />
這段時間以來,黃金期貨投機頭寸維持高位的確是過去少有如此久。<br />
<br />
從早前中美貿易戰,到美伊衝突和現在的新型肺炎,使得金價一直維持高位不墜。<br />
<br />
這是目前金價行情走勢,你自己認為未來金價走勢會如何?<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: 'times new roman'; margin: 0px; text-align: -webkit-center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>一套三本,为股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b><br /></b></span></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>将投资分析 STEP BY STEP 化繁為簡,全面講解投資分析法。</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><b>投资教学視頻</b></span></div>
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<a href="https://ckfstock.blogspot.com/2019/11/blog-post_25.html">https://ckfstock.blogspot.com/2019/11/blog-post_25.html</a><br />
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-55973875496092680562020-02-02T20:11:00.003-08:002020-02-07T01:00:23.041-08:00武汉肺炎的逆向投资機會在哪?<b><span style="color: red;">武汉肺炎的逆向投资</span></b><br />
《老子》第五十八章:“祸兮,福之所倚;福兮,祸之所伏。<br />
危中藏机,逆向投资比顺势投资更有效。<br />
<a href="https://youtu.be/KMeuBpvDadQ">https://youtu.be/KMeuBpvDadQ</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">疫情下的石油投资</span></b><br />
石油也是武汉疫情的重灾区,一个月原油期货下跌了16%,但那类石油公司跌的比较重,以及未来反弹会更高呢?<br />
<a href="https://youtu.be/Odj7B7s_HjI">https://youtu.be/Odj7B7s_HjI</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">武汉疫情的博彩投资机会</span></b><br />
澳门是非常依赖旅游业的中国特区,他的博彩旅游业在亚洲具有独特性,疫情蔓延,他首当其冲。<br />
<a href="https://youtu.be/MyRaisn63wg">https://youtu.be/MyRaisn63wg</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: red;">携程网可中短期逆势投资</span></b><br />
同样在疫情中受损的旅游产业一环,就是提供机票,酒店,交通服务的平台。<br />
<a href="https://youtu.be/CNxDhMFm6V0">https://youtu.be/CNxDhMFm6V0</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
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</div>
</div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>一套三本,为股票基本面分析的《股票真智慧》、技术面的《图表趋势秘密》和经济分析的《经济周期投资》。</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 19.5px;"><b>将投资分析 STEP BY STEP 化繁為簡,全面講解投資分析法。</b></span></span><br />
<br />
<div style="font-family: 'times new roman';">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">詳細內容</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">可瀏覽</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; line-height: 19.5px;">:</span></div>
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<b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19.5px;"><b style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"><a href="https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/2018/02/adibooks-series.html">https://ckfstock.blogspot.my/<wbr></wbr>2018/02/adibooks-series.html</a></span></b></b><br />
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8093731541350287250.post-73643104984199286022020-01-29T22:48:00.001-08:002020-01-31T01:20:39.806-08:00台灣用口罩制裁中國大陸<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b>#台灣用口罩制裁中國大陸?</b><br />
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以下是2019年台灣口罩進出口數據:<br />
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台灣“一般口罩”年產量1.7亿片<br />
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出口1.18亿片給日本(占69.41%)<br />
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出口到大陆的只有185万片(占1.08%)<br />
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台灣进口口罩4.3亿片,3.98亿片是由大陆提供,占92%。<br />
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防护性更强的“N95口罩”,台湾进口421万片,其中186万片来自大陆、占比超过四成,其次为从韩国进口的约102万片、占比超过两成;<br />
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出口总量则为1285万片,以出口到英国和新加坡为主、约占出口总量的两成,销往大陆的总量仅为8万片,不到出口总销量的1%。<br />
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在台灣制裁下,台灣買不到足夠的口罩。<br />
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春節一過,中國大陸口罩廠機器開動,2月底可日產1.8億片。<br />
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中國口罩產能是世界的一半。<br />
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台灣停止一切出口,如果,我是說如果,也不出口民進黨「祖國」日本的話,島內產量也不到平時一年需求的一半(疫情時期消耗速度是平時幾十倍乃至百倍),加上囤貨會讓市場更加缺貨。<br />
<b>結論:..........你自己認為結果是什麼呢?(⊙_⊙)</b><br />
獻上一首台灣童謠<b>《草螟弄雞公》</b><br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWSGXSksQbw">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWSGXSksQbw</a><br />
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阿弟@投資世界http://www.blogger.com/profile/00165104532049473243noreply@blogger.com0